Match Analysis: Morehead St Eagles vs UL Monroe Warhawks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-23
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Neutral Site – Johnson City, TN
Game Overview
The Morehead St Eagles host the UL Monroe Warhawks in a neutral-site NCAA Men’s basketball matchup. Morehead St has shown a stronger offense recently, averaging significantly more points per game and a positive scoring margin, whereas UL Monroe struggles with a negative scoring margin and lower offensive efficiency. Historical head-to-head data is minimal and mixed, with no meetings since 2009. Current odds favor Morehead St decisively on the moneyline and spread.
Key Factors to Consider
- Morehead St Eagles rank higher in offensive effectiveness, averaging about 69.8 points per game with a +6.1 scoring margin, while UL Monroe averages 66.1 points per game with a -10.8 margin. Morehead St's offense is notably efficient, shooting 56.3% on effective FG percentage allowed to opponents, with the Warhawks at 50% effective FG. Morehead St has consistently scored over 140 points in 80% of their recent games, often surpassing 150-170 point totals, indicating strong offensive output.
- The teams have scarce direct meetings. The last recorded games were in 2008 and 2009 with split results: UL Monroe won by 1 point away in 2009 and Morehead St won by 2 points at home in 2008. There is essentially no recent data to infer head-to-head dominance.
- No injuries reported for either team, indicating both lineups should be at full strength.
- The game is played at a neutral venue in Johnson City, TN, removing home-court advantage. Weather and travel factors are nominal. Morehead St’s recent home/neutral and UL Monroe’s away performance do not strongly suggest external distortions.
- Morehead St holds a better record (2-0) in the current season and positive momentum from high-scoring wins. UL Monroe's struggles with a 1-4 record and inconsistency could impact motivation negatively.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Morehead St Eagles: -285, UL Monroe Warhawks: 230 | Morehead St Eagles | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Morehead St Eagles: -5.5 -120, UL Monroe Warhawks: +5.5 -102 | Morehead St Eagles -5.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 148.5: -110, Under 148.5: -110 | Over 148.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Morehead St Eagles -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 148.5 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 148.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Morehead St Eagles are the clear favorites to win given their superior offensive metrics, recent scoring form, and the betting market odds. The predicted outcome is a Morehead St victory covering the -5.5 spread with moderately high confidence.
Predicted Score: Morehead St Eagles 79 – 68 UL Monroe Warhawks