Match Analysis: Missouri St Bears vs LIU Sharks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-25
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Great Southern Bank Arena, Springfield
Game Overview
Missouri State Bears host LIU Sharks in a non-conference NCAAB matchup. Missouri State enters with a 3-2 record, showing solid defensive metrics and a strong home advantage, while LIU is 3-3, struggling defensively and on the road. The game features a spread favoring Missouri State by 5.5 points and a total set at 141.5, reflecting a moderate scoring expectation.
Key Factors to Consider
- Missouri State averages 82.0 PPG, ranks 133rd in points allowed (70.0), and forces 14.0 turnovers per game. Their defense allows 40.9% FG and 27.8% from three. LIU averages 72.7 PPG, ranks 322nd in points allowed (82.5), and forces 15.3 turnovers. LIU's defense allows 45.9% FG and 39.6% from three. Missouri State has a better defensive rebounding and overall defensive profile.
- No recent head-to-head meetings found; this is a rare matchup.
- No major injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- Missouri State plays at home, where they are 3-1, while LIU is 2-3 on the road. Missouri State's home crowd and familiarity with the arena could provide a slight edge.
- Both teams are looking to build momentum early in the season. Missouri State seeks to solidify their home record, while LIU aims to improve their road performance and defensive consistency.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Missouri St Bears: -245, LIU Sharks: +194 | Missouri St Bears | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Missouri St Bears: -5.5 -110, LIU Sharks: +5.5 -110 | Missouri St Bears -5.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 141.5 -118, Under: 141.5 -106 | Under | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Missouri St Bears -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 141.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 141.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Missouri State is favored to win and cover the spread due to their superior defense, home advantage, and LIU's defensive struggles. The game is expected to be competitive, but Missouri State's ability to limit scoring and control the pace should lead to a comfortable victory.
Predicted Score: Missouri State Bears 76 – 65 LIU Sharks