Match Analysis: Mississippi St Bulldogs vs New Orleans Privateers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-25
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, MS
Game Overview
Mississippi State Bulldogs and New Orleans Privateers both enter the game with a 2-3 record this season. Mississippi State shows slightly stronger offensive and rebounding metrics compared to New Orleans, allowing them to control game tempo better. The Bulldogs are favored heavily by bookmakers and analysts due to their home advantage and superior team strength ratings.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mississippi State averages around 79.2 points per game with 46% field goal shooting, while allowing about 75.3 points defensively. New Orleans averages 75.2 points per game but concedes 80 points on defense. Mississippi State exhibits better rebounding and assists, and forces more turnovers on defense compared to the Privateers.
- No recent H2H data was found specific to this matchup in 2025, but Tennessee State Bulldogs hold a strong home advantage historically over like-ranked teams and show higher power ratings.
- No current injuries reported for Mississippi State or New Orleans Privateers. Missing players in past months included Sergej Macura and Gai Chol, but no evidence they will miss this game.
- Mississippi State has one of the strongest home-court advantages nationally (#7), and faces a comparatively weaker schedule strength from New Orleans. The Bulldogs also have the 2nd toughest schedule overall, possibly priming them better for this contest.
- Both teams seek to improve their losing starts this season. Mississippi Stateβs heavier home crowd support and desire to avoid an upset likely increase their motivation. New Orleans aims to stay competitive and cover the spread despite being underdogs.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mississippi St Bulldogs: -4000, New Orleans Privateers: 1400 | Mississippi St win | β β β β β 95% |
| Spread | Mississippi St Bulldogs: -19.5 (-114), New Orleans Privateers: +19.5 (-106) | New Orleans to cover +19.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 160.5: -110, Under 160.5: -110 | Under 160.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mississippi St Bulldogs 1250% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 160.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Mississippi St Bulldogs at 1250% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 89.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mississippi State to win decisively but potentially by a narrower margin than the large spread suggests due to New Orleans' defensive efforts and ability to avoid a blowout.
Predicted Score: Mississippi St Bulldogs 85 – New Orleans Privateers 68