Match Analysis: Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-18
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
Game Overview
The Minnesota Timberwolves (8-5) host the struggling Dallas Mavericks (4-10), with the Timberwolves heavily favored at home. Minnesota has been strong against the spread when scoring over 117 points and boasts a superior recent form and shooting efficiency. Dallas has notable struggles on the road and against winning teams but has some history of covering the spread as underdogs here.
Key Factors to Consider
- Timberwolves hold a better record (8-5) and average 120.7 PPG with a positive point differential (+4.9), while Mavericks are 4-10 with 111.3 PPG and a negative differential (-5.7). Minnesota shoots 50% FG versus Dallas allowing 45.6%. Recent form favors Minnesota with 6 of last 10 wins.
- In the last three meetings, Minnesota leads 2-1. Mavericks have covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 matchups despite losing most games.
- No major injuries reported impacting the key players or lineups significantly for either team in available data.
- Game played at Target Center in Minneapolis, favoring home Timberwolves. Dallas performs poorly on the road and especially on back-to-back games where applicable.
- Timberwolves motivated to solidify position with wins vs. weaker teams. Mavericks lack consistency but often perform competitively as underdogs, especially on points spread.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Minnesota Timberwolves: -950, Dallas Mavericks: +625 | Minnesota Timberwolves win | β β β β β 88% |
| Spread | Minnesota Timberwolves -14.5: -105, Dallas Mavericks +14.5: -115 | Minnesota Timberwolves -14.5 cover | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 229.5: -110, Under 229.5: -110 | Over 229.5 points | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Minnesota Timberwolves -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 229.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 229.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Moneyline: Minnesota Timberwolves win; Spread: Minnesota Timberwolves -14.5 cover; Over/Under: Over 229.5 points
Predicted Score: Minnesota Timberwolves 123 – Dallas Mavericks 107