Match Analysis: Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Green Bay Phoenix – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Williams Arena, Minneapolis, MN
Game Overview
The Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-1) host the Green Bay Phoenix (1-3) in a non-conference matchup at Williams Arena. Minnesota enters as a heavy favorite, with the spread set at -27.5 points and the over/under at 146.5. The game is scheduled for Saturday, November 15, 2025, at 9 p.m. ET (02:00 UTC).
Key Factors to Consider
- Minnesota has shown strong offensive and defensive balance, averaging 81.0 points per game and allowing just 64.3 points per game, resulting in a +15.7 point differential. Green Bay struggles on both ends, averaging 67.3 points scored and 80.0 points allowed, for a -12.7 point differential. Minnesota shoots 48.5% overall and holds opponents to 41.4% shooting, while Green Bay shoots 43.5% and allows 48.2%. Minnesotaβs defense is particularly vulnerable from three-point range, allowing 40.8% from deep. Green Bayβs adjusted tempo is 70.4 (247th), and Minnesotaβs is 68.7 (332nd), indicating a slower-paced, lower-scoring game is likely.
- Recent trends show Minnesota has won 17 of its last 18 home games against non-conference opponents. Green Bay has lost 18 straight road games against non-AP-ranked opponents. The home team has won the first half in nine of Green Bayβs last 10 games.
- No significant injuries reported for either team.
- Minnesota is playing at home, where they have a strong recent record. Green Bay is on the road, where they have struggled, going 1-4 ATS in their last 5 away games. The game is played on a Saturday night, with no major weather or scheduling disruptions expected.
- Minnesota seeks a bounce-back win after a loss to Missouri, while Green Bay looks to end a three-game losing streak. Minnesotaβs motivation is high to protect their home court, while Green Bay may be demoralized by their recent road struggles.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Minnesota -9000, Green Bay +1500 | Minnesota | β β β β β 99% |
| Spread | Green Bay +27.5 -102, Minnesota -27.5 -120 | Minnesota -27.5 | β β β β β 95% |
| Over/under | Over 146.5 -110, Under 146.5 -110 | Under | β β β β β 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 146.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 146.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Minnesota is expected to win decisively due to their superior offensive and defensive metrics, home-court advantage, and Green Bayβs poor road record. The game is likely to be low-scoring due to both teamsβ slow tempos and defensive struggles, making the under a strong play.
Predicted Score: Minnesota 78, Green Bay 62