Match Analysis: Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Green Bay Phoenix – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Williams Arena, Minneapolis, MN
Game Overview
Minnesota Golden Gophers host Green Bay Phoenix in a matchup with a large spread favoring Minnesota, reflecting Minnesota's significantly stronger statistical performance and home-court advantage. Green Bay struggles offensively and defensively, while Minnesota has solid scoring and defensive metrics.
Key Factors to Consider
- Minnesota averages 81.0 points per game and concedes 64.3, with a +15.7 point differential. Green Bay averages 67.3 points and allows 80.0 points per game with a -12.7 differential. Minnesota shoots 48.5% overall, better than Green Bayβs 43.5%, and is defensively superior.
- Minnesota has won 17 of 18 recent home games against non-conference opponents. Green Bay has lost their last 18 road games against non-AP-ranked teams, indicating a strong home dominance for Minnesota.
- No significant recent injury reports affecting starting lineups for either team were found in available data.
- The game is at Williams Arena, giving Minnesota a strong home court edge. Both teams have slow adjusted tempos (Minnesota 68.7, Green Bay 70.4 per KenPom), suggesting a lower scoring pace.
- Minnesota seeks a bounce-back after a recent loss and shows better motivation to rebound at home, whereas Green Bay has struggled to cover spreads and win on the road this season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Minnesota: -2700, Green Bay: +1250 | Minnesota Golden Gophers | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Minnesota -27.5: -120, Green Bay +27.5: -102 | Minnesota Golden Gophers -27.5 | β β β β β 80% |
| Over/under | Over 146.5: -110, Under 146.5: -110 | Under 146.5 | β β β β β 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 146.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 146.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Minnesota Golden Gophers to win decisively, cover the large 27.5-point spread, and the game to go under the 146.5 total given the slow pace and defensive strength, despite Minnesota's scoring ability.
Predicted Score: Minnesota Golden Gophers 83 – Green Bay Phoenix 58