Match Analysis: Michigan St Spartans vs Arkansas Razorbacks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Jack Breslin Students Events Center, East Lansing, Michigan
Game Overview
The No. 22 Michigan State Spartans (1-0) host the No. 14 Arkansas Razorbacks (1-0) in a closely matched early season NCAA basketball game with a small spread favoring Michigan State by 1.5 points and an over/under set at 155.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both teams are 1-0 to start their seasons. Arkansas emphatically defeated Southern 109-77 with strong scoring performances, including Trevon Brazileβs 25 points. Michigan State is slightly favored and playing at home.
- Recent direct matchup data is limited, but both teams have strong competitive resumes and rankings (Arkansas #14, Michigan State #22) indicating balanced strength.
- No significant injuries reported for either team, enabling both squads to field their preferred lineups.
- Game played at Michigan Stateβs home venue, providing a minor advantage for the Spartans. Weather and travel appear unlikely to impact performance significantly.
- Early season game setting tone for SEC vs. Big Ten rivalry. Arkansas aims to prove SEC strength; Michigan State seeks to justify home favorite status and establish momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -125, away: +105 | Michigan State | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | home: -110, away: -110 | Michigan State -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | over: -110, under: -110 | Over 155.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Michigan St Spartans 23% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 155.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Michigan St Spartans at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Michigan State to win on the moneyline, cover the 1.5-point spread, with the total going over 155.5 points.
Predicted Score: Michigan State 80 – Arkansas 75