Match Analysis: Miami Hurricanes vs Elon Phoenix – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-21
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Watsco Center, Coral Gables, Florida
Game Overview
The Miami Hurricanes (3-1) host the Elon Phoenix (3-1) in an NCAA basketball game. The Hurricanes are led by first-year head coach Jai Lucas and recently lost 82-68 to No. 10 Florida. Elon has been strong from beyond the arc, leading the CAA in 3-point shooting with 12.8 made threes per game and a 37.5% rate. This is only the second meeting ever between the teams; Elon won the previous matchup in 1940.
Key Factors to Consider
- Miami has won three of four games decisively except a recent loss to a top-10 opponent, scoring over 100 in three wins. Elon is 3-1 with solid scoring, including consistent high 3-point shooting and games with 90+ points. Both teams show offensive firepower but with different stylesβMiami more balanced, Elon reliant on perimeter shooting.
- Teams met only once previously in 1940; Elon won 58-30. No recent head-to-head history complicates predictive modeling. Elon leads historical series 1-0.
- No reported key injuries for either team ahead of the matchup.
- Miami has home court advantage at the Watsco Center. The gameβs large point spread (-20.5 for Miami) reflects expectations of Miamiβs dominance, highlighting perceived gap in team strength.
- Elon is motivated to prove themselves against a power conference team, seeking their second straight ACC opponent win after last seasonβs upset of Notre Dame. Miami aims to rebound from their recent loss and demonstrate ACC strength under new coaching.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Elon Phoenix: 1600, Miami Hurricanes: -4500 | Miami Hurricanes win | β β β β β 92% |
| Spread | Elon Phoenix: 20.5 -110, Miami Hurricanes: -20.5 -110 | Miami Hurricanes -20.5 | β β β β β 85% |
| Over/under | Over: 161.5 -110, Under: 161.5 -110 | Over 161.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Miami Hurricanes -8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 161.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 161.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Miami Hurricanes are strongly favored to win given superior conference affiliation, home advantage, and recent form. Expected to cover the large spread due to Elonβs defensive vulnerabilities against elite offenses. The total points likely to go over the 161.5 line due to both teams' offensive capabilities.
Predicted Score: Miami Hurricanes 90 – Elon Phoenix 68