Match Analysis: Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-12
- Time: 12:40 AM UTC
- Location: Kaseya Center, Miami
Game Overview
The Miami Heat (7-4), currently on a three-game winning streak, host the Cleveland Cavaliers (7-4) who will rest key starters Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley. The Heat are favorites both on the moneyline and spread, but the Cavaliers' strong three-point shooting and balanced record make this a competitive matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
- Miami leads in scoring (approx. 125.5 PPG) and defense, with an 8-2-1 ATS record. Cavaliers score 122.3 PPG, rank first in made three-pointers per game (17.0), and have a 7-4 record.
- Recent meetings favor Miami slightly, including a close 140-138 OT win on 11/10/2025. Historically Cleveland held better margins, but Miami's home advantage and momentum are significant.
- Cleveland resting stars Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley weakens their offense and defense. Miami missing Bam Adebayo (toe) limits frontcourt presence, but Heat depth offsets this partially.
- Game played at Miamiβs home court, Kaseya Center, with Heat favored by sportsbooks and enjoying momentum from recent wins.
- Miami aims to extend winning streak and consolidate home dominance; Cleveland faces challenges resting starters, likely playing backup-heavy lineup limiting full competitiveness.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Miami Heat -235 / Cleveland Cavaliers +194 | Miami Heat | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Miami Heat -6 (-112) / Cleveland Cavaliers +6 (-108) | Miami Heat -6 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 238.5 -112 / Under 238.5 -108 | Over 238.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Miami Heat 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 238.5 14% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 238.5 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Miami Heat to win straight up and cover the -6 spread with a moderately high-scoring game going over 238.5 points.
Predicted Score: Miami Heat 123 – Cleveland Cavaliers 116