Match Analysis: Memphis Tigers vs UNLV Rebels – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee
Game Overview
The Memphis Tigers will host the UNLV Rebels in an NCAA Men’s basketball game at the FedExForum in Memphis. Both teams are experiencing challenging early seasons. Memphis is 1-1 after a loss to Ole Miss, while UNLV is 1-2 after an upset loss to Montana. Memphis is favored heavily, reflected in odds and preseason expectations, but defensive vulnerabilities have been a concern. UNLV is seeking to gain momentum after a slow start.
Key Factors to Consider
- Memphis Tigers have scored an average of 76.5 points per game with a shooting percentage of 42.9%, but their defense has allowed opponents to shoot 45.8%. UNLV Rebels have struggled with a 1-2 record, trying to recover from unexpected losses, and have shown inconsistent offense and defense performances. Key player D. Gibbs-Lawhorn leads UNLV with 19.0 points per game.
- Memphis won the last meeting between these two teams last season 76-70. Historically, Memphis holds a strong advantage over UNLV in recent head-to-head matchups.
- Current data does not indicate any significant injury concerns affecting either team.
- The game will be played at Memphis’s home venue, FedExForum, providing a home-court advantage. The game will be broadcast on ESPN and streamed live. No unusual external conditions are reported.
- UNLV is motivated to improve their poor start and will seek their second win, while Memphis aims to consolidate their status as AAC preseason favorites and rebound from their recent loss.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers: -630, UNLV Rebels: 450 | Memphis Tigers Moneyline | ★★★★☆ 87% |
| Spread | Memphis Tigers: -9.5 (-120), UNLV Rebels: +9.5 (-102) | Memphis Tigers to cover -9.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over: 161.5 (-115), Under: 161.5 (-105) | Under 161.5 points | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 161.5 13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 161.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Memphis Tigers are predicted to win by covering the spread due to their superior rating, home advantage, and defensive improvements needed from UNLV. The final score is expected to be moderately offensive, slightly below the total line, suggesting a competitive but controlled pace.
Predicted Score: Memphis Tigers 84 – 73 UNLV Rebels