Match Analysis: Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 11:10 PM UTC
- Location: FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee
Game Overview
The undefeated Oklahoma City Thunder (9-1) visit the struggling Memphis Grizzlies (4-6) with a strong 10.5-point favorite status. The Thunder have dominated recent meetings and enter this game healthy and in excellent form.
Key Factors to Consider
- Thunder have won 13 of their last 14 games, averaging 123.2 points per game with efficient shooting and solid defense (allowing 109.7 PPG). The Grizzlies have struggled with a 4-6 record, including inconsistency and internal team drama.
- Thunder have won their last 10 encounters against the Grizzlies, covering the spread 7 times, showcasing psychological and tactical dominance in this matchup.
- The Thunder are currently healthy with no notable injury concerns; the Grizzlies have some internal issues but no major reported injuries impacting their lineup.
- Playing at home for the Grizzlies offers some advantage, but the Thunder's dominant away performance and momentum outweigh this factor.
- Thunder are motivated to maintain their near-perfect record and Western Conference leadership, while the Grizzlies are in a rebuilding phase with less consistent motivation.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -560 | Oklahoma City Thunder | β β β β β 82% |
| Spread | -112 | Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | -110 | Over 233.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Oklahoma City Thunder -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 233.5 30% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 233.5 at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Oklahoma City Thunder to win straight up (moneyline) and cover the -10.5 spread, with the total points going over 233.5 due to strong offenses on both teams.
Predicted Score: Thunder 122 – Grizzlies 108