Match Analysis: Memphis Grizzlies vs Denver Nuggets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-25
- Time: 1:10 AM UTC
- Location: FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee
Game Overview
The Denver Nuggets (12-4) visit the Memphis Grizzlies (6-11) in a Western Conference matchup. Denver is favored by 7.5 points, with the over/under set at 233.5. The Nuggets are on a five-game road winning streak and have shown strong offensive and defensive consistency, while the Grizzlies have struggled this season but have shown slight improvement in their last two games.
Key Factors to Consider
- Denver averages 123.8 points per game on 51% shooting, with Nikola Jokic leading in points, rebounds, and assists. Memphis averages 112.1 points per game and allows 116.5, with a -4.4 point differential. Denver has a 9-5 ATS record and 11-3 record when scoring over 116.5 points. Memphis is 6-11 ATS and 4-5 at home, but only 1-5 ATS as a 7.5+ point underdog.
- Recent matchups favor Denver, with the Nuggets winning 117-109 on December 4, 2025, and 122-110 on November 20, 2024. Denver has dominated the series, showing a clear edge in both scoring and efficiency.
- No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads are expected to field their starting lineups.
- Denver has a 62.5% ATS rate both at home and on the road, and their games go over the total more frequently at home (62.5%) than on the road (50%). Memphis has a better ATS record at home (.444) than away (.250), but their overall performance remains below average.
- Denver is motivated to extend their road winning streak and maintain their position near the top of the Western Conference. Memphis is looking to build momentum after two consecutive wins but faces a tough challenge against a high-powered Nuggets team.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Denver Nuggets: -300, Memphis Grizzlies: 245 | Denver Nuggets | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Denver Nuggets: -7.5 -108, Memphis Grizzlies: 7.5 -112 | Denver Nuggets -7.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 233.5 -112, Under: 233.5 -108 | Over | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Denver Nuggets -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 233.5 4% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 233.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Denver Nuggets are favored to win and cover the spread, with a predicted score of 121-112. The game is expected to go over the total, as both teams have shown a tendency to play at a high pace and score above average.
Predicted Score: Denver Nuggets 121 – Memphis Grizzlies 112