Match Analysis: Maine Black Bears vs Brown Bears – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-23
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: The Pit in Memorial Gymnasium, Orono, Maine
Game Overview
The Maine Black Bears (0-5) host the Brown Bears (1-5) in a non-conference NCAAB matchup. Both teams are struggling, with Maine winless and Brown seeking their second win. The game is expected to be low-scoring, with a total set at 126.5 points. Brown is favored by 1.5 points, but the odds are close, indicating a tight contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Maine averages 59.2 points per game and shoots 40.9% from the field (322nd nationally), while Brown averages 67.3 points per game and shoots 48.1% from the field. Maine commits 22.4 fouls per game and averages 29.8 rebounds. Brown has covered the spread twice in six games, while Maine has covered twice in five. Both teams have allowed opponents to score well above the projected total, with combined averages of 144.1 points per game.
- The last two meetings were split, with each team winning one. The most recent matchup was a 69-67 win for Maine. The series is evenly matched, with no clear dominance.
- No significant injuries reported for either team.
- The game is played at Maine's home venue, The Pit in Memorial Gymnasium. The crowd may provide a slight edge, but both teams have struggled on the road and at home. The weather is not expected to impact the game.
- Maine is desperate to end a five-game losing streak and secure their first win. Brown is looking to build momentum after a recent win and improve their record. Both teams are highly motivated to avoid further losses.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Brown Bears: -118, Maine Black Bears: -102 | Brown Bears | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Spread | Brown Bears: -1.5 -102, Maine Black Bears: 1.5 -118 | Brown Bears -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 52% |
| Over/under | Over: 126.5 -105, Under: 126.5 -115 | Over | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Brown Bears 2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 126.5 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 126.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
This game is expected to be very close, with Brown having a slight edge due to their better offensive efficiency and recent win. However, Maine's home advantage and the tight odds suggest a potential upset. The total is likely to go over, given both teams' defensive struggles and high-scoring opponents.
Predicted Score: Brown Bears 66, Maine Black Bears 62
