Match Analysis: Loyola (Chi) Ramblers vs Colorado St Rams – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 16, 2025
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Gentile Arena, Chicago, IL
Game Overview
Colorado State (3-0) travels to Chicago to face Loyola Chicago (1-3) in a matchup heavily favoring the Rams. Colorado State has emerged as one of the early season standouts with three consecutive victories and dominant offensive and defensive metrics. Loyola Chicago has struggled to start the season, sitting at 1-3 overall and 0-4 against the spread. This represents a significant talent and form disparity, with Colorado State's elite offensive efficiency and defensive prowess positioned against Loyola Chicago's porous perimeter defense and inconsistent play.
Key Factors to Consider
- Colorado State is performing at an elite level offensively, averaging 96.0 PPG while shooting 54.0% from the field and 44.4% from three-point range. Defensively, the Rams are stifling opponents to just 72.3 PPG while holding opponents to 41.4% overall and 33.7% from three. Their offensive efficiency rating of 1.381 (138.1 points per 100 possessions) represents a significant 0.351 advantage over Loyola Chicago's 1.030. Colorado State's effective field goal percentage of 66.5% dwarfs Loyola's 47.6%. The Rams have covered the spread in 2 of 3 games. Loyola Chicago has been outperformed in nearly every statistical category, allowing 80.0 PPG while scoring just 73.0 PPG. Critically, opponents are exploiting Loyola's perimeter defense by hitting 40% of three-point attempts, and the Ramblers have failed to cover the spread in all four games while going 0-4 ATS despite being favored in three matchups.
- This is a non-conference matchup between teams from different conferences with no recent historical data provided in available sources. However, the current season disparity is stark, with Colorado State's success metrics vastly superior across all major statistical categories.
- No injury information is provided in the available data sources for either team.
- The game is played at Loyola Chicago's home venue (Gentile Arena), which typically provides a home court advantage, though this is substantially offset by Colorado State's road pedigree and current form. Colorado State just defeated Cal Poly on the road 93-79, demonstrating travel stability.
- Colorado State seeks to maintain an undefeated season and build NCAA tournament resume credentials. Loyola Chicago is desperate to reverse course after a 1-3 start and poor ATS performance, but faces a formidable opponent in peak form. The Ramblers' inability to cover spreads despite favorable lines suggests systemic issues beyond motivation.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Colorado State -240 / Loyola Chicago +195 | Colorado State Rams | β β β β β 92% |
| Spread | Colorado State -4.5 (-115) / Loyola Chicago +4.5 (-105) | Colorado State -4.5 | β β β β β 88% |
| Over/under | Over 145.5 (-110) / Under 145.5 (-110) | Over 145.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Colorado St Rams 145% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 145.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Colorado St Rams at 145% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 74.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Colorado State is positioned to comfortably defeat Loyola Chicago in this matchup. The Rams' offensive firepower, elite efficiency metrics, and suffocating defense create a significant competitive advantage. Loyola Chicago's defensive vulnerabilitiesβparticularly the 40% three-point shooting allowedβalign directly with Colorado State's strength as a 44.4% three-point shooting team. Colorado State's average scoring margin of +23.7 compared to Loyola Chicago's -7.0 scoring margin provides substantial predictive power. The Rams should control pace, limit turnovers (13.7% vs 14.1%), and leverage their rebounding advantage (34.2% offensive vs 27.6%) to build a decisive advantage. Expect Colorado State to lead throughout and win convincingly by a margin exceeding the spread.
Predicted Score: Colorado State 88, Loyola Chicago 78