Match Analysis: Louisville Cardinals vs Jackson St Tigers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-06
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY
Game Overview
Louisville enters with a dominant 1-0 record and a blowout season opener win (104-45), while Jackson State is 0-1 after losing 113-55 to Illinois. Louisville is a consensus top-15 team, while Jackson State hails from the weaker Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC). The Cardinals have a massive edge in talent, experience, and home-court advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Louisville won their opener by 59 points, shooting efficiently and defending well. Jackson State lost by 58, struggled with turnovers and rebounding, and shot just 30.6% from the field. Louisvilleβs defense was especially stout, while Jackson State allowed opponents to shoot 54.8%.
- No recent direct head-to-head history found. Louisville is 1-0 on the year, while Jackson State is 0-1.
- No significant injury news for either team as of tipoff.
- Louisville is playing at home, a significant advantage. Jackson State is on the road for the second time in a row after a lopsided loss.
- Louisville aims to build momentum and showcase depth ahead of tougher ACC games. Jackson State seeks to avoid back-to-back blowouts and may prioritize limiting the margin instead of chasing an unlikely upset.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisville -34.5 to -35.5 (-110); Jackson State +34.5 to +35.5 (-110) | Louisville covers the spread in a blowout, but if the Cardinals ease off late, Jackson State may sneak under the spread. Value may be on Jackson State +35.5 if Louisville rests starters. | Moderate (depends on Louisville's effort for full 40 minutes) |
| Over/under | Over/Under: 161.5 (-110) | Under 161.5 is the lean, given Jackson Stateβs offensive struggles and Louisvilleβs defensive dominance, but margin for error is slim if Louisville runs up the score. | Moderate |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 161.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 161.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Louisville wins by a wide margin, likely covering a large spread if they donβt take their foot off the gas in the second half. Jackson State could keep the margin slightly under the spread if Louisville eases up, but a competitive game is highly unlikely. The total could fall under 162 if Louisvilleβs defense continues to dominate and Jackson State struggles offensively.
Predicted Score: Louisville 98, Jackson State 63