Match Analysis: Long Beach St 49ers vs Montana St Bobcats – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 21, 2025
- Time: 3:00 AM UTC
- Location: Walter Pyramid, Long Beach, CA
Game Overview
Montana State Bobcats travel to Long Beach to face the Long Beach State 49ers in a non-conference NCAA Division I men's basketball matchup. Both teams enter the contest with identical 1-4 records, making this a critical game for both programs early in the season. Montana State competes in the Big Sky Conference while Long Beach State represents the Big West Conference. This matchup features two struggling teams looking to generate momentum as the season progresses.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both teams are struggling significantly this season. Long Beach State is winless in their last 5 games (0-4 record in last 5), while Montana State also shows concerning form. Long Beach State has gone 2-2 against the spread in their last 5 games and 1-2 in road games against the spread. Montana State demonstrates slightly more promise offensively based on recent performance trends, though both teams have been inconsistent. The Bobcats' recent road performances show more resilience compared to the 49ers' home court struggles.
- These teams have limited recent history. Since 1997, Long Beach State leads the head-to-head record at 1-0 over the last three seasons, with a 75-69 victory on November 26, 2023, where Long Beach covered the spread as a 3.5-point favorite and the game went under. Historically, Montana State has dominated the series with multiple victories dating back to 2008 and 2007, suggesting the Bobcats have superior program strength when looking at the longer-term record.
- No specific injury information is available in the current data regarding key players for either team.
- This is a late-night tip-off scheduled for 10:00 PM ET (3:00 AM UTC the following day), which could impact player performance and fatigue levels. The game is played at Long Beach's home venue, the Walter Pyramid, providing the 49ers with a home-court advantage. Both teams are in survival mode with identical 1-4 records, creating desperation that could lead to unpredictable outcomes.
- Both teams are desperate for a win to avoid further damage to their resumes and conference standings. Montana State, despite traveling on the road, may possess stronger motivation given their historical dominance in this series. Long Beach State is seeking to break their current losing streak at home, which provides significant incentive for the 49ers.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Montana St -180 / Long Beach St +150 | Montana State Bobcats Moneyline | β β β ββ 62% |
| Spread | Montana St -3.5 (-105) / Long Beach St +3.5 (-115) | Montana State -3.5 | 60-62% |
| Over/under | Over 139.5 (-112) / Under 139.5 (-108) | Under 139.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Montana St Bobcats 55% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 139.5 6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Montana St Bobcats at 55% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 36.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Montana State Bobcats are favored to win this matchup and should emerge victorious despite playing on the road. The Bobcats' superior program strength, historical head-to-head advantage, and slightly better form make them the more likely winner. However, this game carries significant uncertainty given both teams' poor records and the late-night playing conditions.
Predicted Score: Montana State 70, Long Beach State 67