Match Analysis: Lindenwood Lions vs UMKC Kangaroos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-24
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Robert F. Hyland Arena, St. Charles, MO
Game Overview
The Lindenwood Lions host the UMKC Kangaroos at home in an Ohio Valley Conference matchup. Lindenwood has a 2-4 overall record with a 1-0 home record, showing moderate home strength. UMKC enters with a 1-4 record and is on a three-game road losing streak, struggling particularly with defensive issues, giving up an average of 86.4 points per game. Offensively, both teams have solid contributors but Lindenwoodβs defense and rebounding edge may be critical.
Key Factors to Consider
- Lindenwood is averaging competitive defense with strong defensive rebounds per game (23.7) led by Milos Nenadic. Key offensive boosts come from Anias Futrell (11.8 PPG, 34.6% 3PT) and Jadis Jones (15.8 PPG). UMKC is relying on CJ Evans (12.6 PPG, 3.4 APG) and Jayson Petty (12.4 PPG) with a weaker defense allowing 86.4 points per game, indicating vulnerability on that end.
- Lindenwood trails UMKC 0-2 all-time against them, with the last meeting in 2023 resulting in a close 72-67 win for UMKC. Few current players have previous H2H experience, making this contest somewhat open.
- No major injuries reported that significantly impact starting lineups for either team.
- UMKC's ongoing three-game road skid adds pressure, while Lindenwood has home-court advantage and a strong defensive rebounding margin, vital in controlling pace.
- UMKC is motivated to break their road losing streak and improve their record, while Lindenwood seeks to build a winning momentum at home and capitalize on their defensive strengths.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lindenwood: -180, UMKC: 150 | Lindenwood Lions | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Lindenwood: -3.5 -112, UMKC: +3.5 -108 | Lindenwood Lions to cover -3.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 146.5 -112, Under: 146.5 -108 | Over 146.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lindenwood Lions -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 146.5 4% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 146.5 at 4% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Lindenwood Lions are favored to win given their home advantage, superior defensive metrics, and UMKC's poor road form. Expected to cover the -3.5 spread and produce a moderately high scoring game near the over/under line.
Predicted Score: Lindenwood Lions 75 – UMKC Kangaroos 69