Match Analysis: Jacksonville St Gamecocks vs North Dakota St Bison – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-26
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: First National Bank Arena, Jonesboro
Game Overview
The matchup features the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (3-2) hosting the North Dakota State Bison (4-2). Jacksonville State has a strong home presence, averaging a higher rebound count and slightly better defensive numbers, while North Dakota State has been dominant at home but struggles somewhat on the road. The teams have contrasting recent forms, with NDSU on a 4-game winning streak and Jax State coming off two straight losses.
Key Factors to Consider
- North Dakota State holds a 4-2 overall record with a 4-0 home record but 0-2 on the road, scoring an average of 84.7 PPG and allowing 67.5 PPG. Jacksonville State is 3-2, scoring about 86.6 PPG and allowing 62.8 PPG, with strong rebounding (45.8 per game). Jacksonville State has struggled ATS (against the spread) recently and at road games, while totals often go over in their matches.
- The last head-to-head meeting was a Jacksonville State 81-71 win over North Dakota State, indicating Jacksonville State can compete effectively. Overall, North Dakota State is 4-2 this season with a solid offensive output, whereas Jacksonville State is at 3-2.
- No specific injury reports available from the search data for this game, suggesting both teams likely have their main rotations intact.
- Jacksonville State plays in a familiar home environment, which tends to favor them, especially given North Dakota State's lack of road success. Public betting heavily favors Jacksonville State on the moneyline, indicating strong market confidence in the home team.
- Jacksonville State looks to bounce back from recent losses and capitalize on home court. North Dakota State aims to extend their winning streak and overcome their poor road record.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jacksonville State: +138, North Dakota State: -166 | Jacksonville State to win | β β β ββ 58% |
| Spread | Jacksonville State: +3.5 at -122, North Dakota State: -3.5 at 100 | Jacksonville State +3.5 to cover spread | β β β ββ 55% |
| Over/under | Over 142.5: -115, Under 142.5: -105 | Over 142.5 points total | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Dakota St Bison 45% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 142.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: North Dakota St Bison at 45% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Jacksonville State is favored to win by a narrow margin based on home court advantage, recent head-to-head win, and market confidence undervaluing the moneyline odds. A moneyline bet on Jacksonville State represents value despite North Dakota Stateβs overall strong season record.
Predicted Score: North Dakota State 70 – Jacksonville State 76