Match Analysis: IUPUI Jaguars vs Alabama St Hornets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-21
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Clune Arena, Colorado Springs, CO
Game Overview
The IUPUI Jaguars host the Alabama State Hornets in a college basketball matchup where the Jaguars enter as 3.5-point favorites. The total points over/under line is set at 184.5. Both teams have struggled somewhat, with Alabama State at 2-3 and IUPUI at 2-4, and have shown defensive vulnerabilities, leading to expectations of a moderately high-scoring game. The Jaguars’ offense has been potent but their defense leaky, while Alabama State plays a slightly slower, more defensive game aiming to keep the score under projections.
Key Factors to Consider
- IUPUI averages about 97.8 points per game while allowing 117.4 points, shooting around 46.8% with poor defense (allowing 52.1%). Alabama State scores around 79 points per game and allows about 80.6 points, shooting 43.2% but playing better defense comparatively. Recent form sees IUPUI with a one-game losing streak and Alabama State on two consecutive losses.
- This matchup shows no significant historical head-to-head advantage due to limited prior encounters at neutral venues. However, Alabama State has better success in day games at neutral sites, winning six of seven against comparable opponents, while IUPUI has lost nine of their last ten neutral-site games.
- No specific injuries reported or updated for this match, implying both teams likely to field their standard lineups.
- Game played indoors at a neutral venue (Clune Arena), reducing home-court advantage impacts. Fatigue or travel does not appear to be a major factor. The game time is standard evening tip-off.
- Alabama State may be motivated to challenge their recent away form and leverage their day-game strength, while IUPUI aims to capitalize on offensive firepower and cover the 3.5 point spread as favorites.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alabama St Hornets: +155, IUPUI Jaguars: -188 | IUPUI Jaguars win | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
| Spread | Alabama St Hornets: 3.5 -114, IUPUI Jaguars: -3.5 -106 | IUPUI Jaguars cover -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Over/under | Over: 184.5 -110, Under: 184.5 -110 | Under 184.5 | ★★★☆☆ 57% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | IUPUI Jaguars -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 184.5 9% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 184.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
IUPUI Jaguars are favored to narrowly win by a small margin, likely covering the -3.5 spread. The total is predicted to go under the set line of 184.5, considering defensive performances and recent trends.
Predicted Score: IUPUI Jaguars 90 – Alabama State Hornets 85
