Match Analysis: Iowa State Cyclones vs Mississippi St Bulldogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-10
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Sanford Pentagon, Sioux Falls, South Dakota
Game Overview
Iowa State Cyclones, ranked No. 16, enter undefeated at 2-0, facing Missouri Valley Conference opponent Mississippi State Bulldogs, who are 1-0. This neutral-site early season college basketball contest features two teams with solid starts but differing depth and experience.
Key Factors to Consider
- Iowa State is favored with a 2-0 strong start, showing efficient offense (80.3 PPG last season, top 40 nationally) and solid defensive efficiency. Mississippi State is 1-0, with less consistent recent performance and a weaker home/road spread record last season.
- Recent H2H data is limited, but Iowa State has a historical edge in coverage and success as favorites. Mississippi State underperformed as underdogs last season, losing all three games as +190 or greater underdogs, showing difficulty covering large spreads.
- No significant injuries reported for either team going into this matchup, ensuring both lineups expected to be at peak strength.
- Game played at neutral site Sanford Pentagon, removing typical home-court advantage; Iowa State's experience at ranked team status may provide morale edge. No travel or unusual external factors significantly impacting either side.
- Iowa State is motivated to maintain undefeated start and justify ranking, whilst Mississippi State aims to prove resilience facing a higher-ranked opponent after slow start last season as underdogs.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Iowa State Cyclones: -255, Mississippi St Bulldogs: +205 | Iowa State Cyclones | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Iowa State Cyclones -5.5: -106, Mississippi St Bulldogs +5.5: -114 | Iowa State Cyclones -5.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 150.5: -110, Under 150.5: -110 | Over 150.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Iowa State Cyclones -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 150.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 150.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Iowa State to win straight up and cover the spread with a moderately high scoring outcome expected given offensive efficiencies.
Predicted Score: Iowa State Cyclones 78 – Mississippi St Bulldogs 69