Match Analysis: Iowa Hawkeyes vs SE Missouri St Redhawks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-19
- Time: 1:30 AM UTC
- Location: Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City, Iowa
Game Overview
The Iowa Hawkeyes enter this NCAA basketball match as overwhelming favorites against the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks. Iowa is undefeated (3-0) with strong offensive and defensive metrics, ranked in the top 20 nationally, while Southeast Missouri State is 1-3 and significantly outmatched in most statistical categories. The spread is heavily in Iowa's favor at -24.5 points, reflecting the expected dominance by the home team.
Key Factors to Consider
- Iowa averages 82.5 points per game, ranks 16th in scoring, and has a strong 49% field goal percentage, while their defense allows 79.7 points (ranked 343rd). SE Missouri scores 74 points per game (167th) with a lower shooting percentage but allows only 67 points on average (42nd). Iowa ranks highly in assists and is efficient offensively; SEMO struggles with turnovers and lower assist numbers.
- No recent head-to-head history is specified, but the apparent quality gap and odds suggest marked dominance by Iowa in prior comparable matchups.
- No reported injuries for either team at this time.
- The game is played at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, giving Iowa home-court advantage. Public betting heavily favors Iowa with 100% of bets on them, indicating strong consensus on the outcome. Weather or other external issues do not appear to impact the game.
- Iowa seeks to maintain a perfect season start and validate their ranking, while SEMO enters as heavy underdogs aiming to upset expectations.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes: -10000, SE Missouri St Redhawks: 3000 | Iowa Hawkeyes win | β β β β β 99% |
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes: -24.5 -115, SE Missouri St Redhawks: +24.5 -105 | Iowa covers the 24.5 point spread | β β β β β 95% |
| Over/under | Over: 149.5 -105, Under: 149.5 -115 | Under 149.5 points | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 149.5 22% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 149.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Iowa Hawkeyes are predicted to win decisively by a margin close to the point spread, demonstrating a high likelihood of covering the -24.5 spread. The total points is expected to be slightly under the mark set at 149.5 based on conservative scoring estimates.
Predicted Score: Iowa Hawkeyes 87 – SE Missouri St Redhawks 62