Match Analysis: Indiana Hoosiers vs Incarnate Word Cardinals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 10:30 PM UTC
- Location: Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bloomington
Game Overview
The Indiana Hoosiers, undefeated at 3-0 and playing at home, face the Incarnate Word Cardinals, who have a 2-1 record and are 0-1 on the road. Indiana is heavily favored given their strong season start and home advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Indiana is 3-0 this season with wins characterized by strong defensive and offensive play. Incarnate Word is 2-1, showing moderate scoring ability but a clear disparity in team quality and experience. Indiana's recent games have mostly gone over the total points line.
- No significant historical data available between these teams indicating a competitive balance; Indiana generally holds more prominence in NCAA basketball.
- Incarnate Word has some key injuries including G Jason Drake (toe), F Josh Harris (foot), and G Aleksa Ristic (foot), potentially weakening their lineup and depth. Indiana reports no significant injuries.
- Home court advantage for Indiana at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall is a strong positive. Public betting heavily favors Indiana with 77% of the bets and 77% of the money backing them.
- Indiana aims to maintain their perfect season start and home dominance, while Incarnate Word looks to prove themselves as underdogs against a top-tier opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Indiana Hoosiers: -10000, Incarnate Word Cardinals: 3000 | Indiana Hoosiers win | β β β β β 95% |
| Spread | Indiana Hoosiers -25.5: -118, Incarnate Word Cardinals +25.5: -104 | Indiana covers -25.5 spread | β β β β β 90% |
| Over/under | Over 154.5: -110, Under 154.5: -110 | Over 154.5 points total | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Indiana Hoosiers -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 154.5 34% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 154.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Indiana Hoosiers are expected to win decisively given the talent gap, home advantage, and injuries impacting Incarnate Word. Margin of victory likely around 25 points fitting the spread.
Predicted Score: Indiana Hoosiers 88 – Incarnate Word Cardinals 62