Match Analysis: Illinois Fighting Illini vs Colgate Raiders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 14, 2025
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: State Farm Center, Champaign, Illinois
Game Overview
The No. 14 Illinois Fighting Illini (3-0) host the Colgate Raiders (1-2) in a heavily lopsided matchup. Illinois enters as overwhelming 28.5-point favorites with a perfect home record this season, while Colgate struggles on the road with a 0-1 away record. The Fighting Illini have been dominant, winning by an average of 35 points per game and boasting the 16th-best offense in the country. Colgate's only road appearance resulted in a loss, and they face a superior opponent on both ends of the floor.
Key Factors to Consider
- Illinois is undefeated at 3-0 with exceptional offensive efficiency and strong defensive metrics. They rank 13th nationally in rebounds allowed (26.3 per game) and have won three consecutive home games. Colgate is 1-2 overall with mixed resultsβthey shot exceptionally well in their last game against Drexel (63% FG, 88.9% FT), but their road performance has been poor. Illinois shoots 76.5% from free throw and averages 14.3 assists per game, demonstrating balanced offensive play. Colgate averages 74.7 PPG (251st in college basketball) on 49.4% shooting, which is mediocre compared to Illinois's elite efficiency.
- No direct head-to-head history is provided in available data, but the statistical disparity heavily favors Illinois. The Fighting Illini have covered spreads of 28.5 points as favorites, while Colgate was 1-0 ATS as a 28.5-point underdog last season. However, current season form suggests Illinois should dominate.
- No injury information is available in the provided data.
- Illinois has played four consecutive home games and maintains a strong 10-7-0 ATS record at home from last season. The neutral environment factor is nonexistent as Illinois plays at home. The over/under of 163.5 suggests oddsmakers expect a high-scoring game, though Colgate's defensive vulnerabilities could lead to even higher scoring if Illinois runs up the score.
- Illinois seeks to extend their three-game home winning streak and maintain their undefeated record. Colgate faces motivation challenges after their 0-1 road record and needs to avoid a blowout loss. Illinois's dominant scoring margin (averaging +35 PPG) suggests strong team confidence and execution.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois -28.5 (-118); Colgate +28.5 (-104) | Illinois -28.5 | β β β β β 92% |
| Over/under | Over 163.5 (-115); Under 163.5 (-105) | Under 163.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 163.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 163.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Illinois will win decisively and cover the spread. The Fighting Illini's 16th-ranked offense, elite home performance, and perfect record position them to beat Colgate by more than 28.5 points. Colgate's poor road record and significant statistical disadvantages in efficiency, rebounding, and turnovers make an upset highly unlikely.
Predicted Score: Illinois 97, Colgate 63