Match Analysis: Howard Bison vs Alcorn St Braves – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 13, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Burr Gymnasium, Washington, DC
Game Overview
Howard Bison (1-2) hosts Alcorn State Braves (0-4) in a non-conference NCAA Men's Basketball matchup. Howard enters as heavy favorites with a 6.5-point spread after a disappointing 73-70 loss to Grambling. Alcorn State continues to struggle on the road, having lost all four games this season by significant margins. This matchup represents a critical opportunity for both teams to establish momentum, with Howard seeking consistency at home and Alcorn State desperate for their first victory of the season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Howard averages 80.0 PPG on 48.5% shooting from the field, 46% from three, and 74.2% from the free throw line. The Bison are dishing out 18.3 assists per game (92nd in college) while forcing 14.3 turnovers per contest. They collect 30.3 rebounds per game and shoot 52.1% in recent games. Alcorn State averages 65.3 PPG (323rd in Division I) on 42.6% shooting with 40.0% from three and 64.2% from free throw. The Braves have been outscored by an average of 25.75 points in their four losses (losing by 32, 6, 45, and 20 points respectively). Alcorn State's offensive execution ranks near the bottom of Division I.
- Howard is 0-2 against the spread in their last two games and 0-2 in their last five games overall. However, they hold a home court advantage where they have gone 0-2 ATS. Alcorn State is 2-2 against the spread for the season but has lost each of their last 36 road games against non-conference opponents, including losses in the first half in 16 of their last 17 night games against non-conference opponents.
- No specific injury information is available in the provided data.
- The game is played in Washington, DC at Howard's home venue (Burr Gymnasium), providing the Bison a significant home-court advantage. Both teams are playing night games, which historically favors Alcorn State negatively (they lose first halves in most night road games). The matchup is broadcast on ESPN+, allowing both teams access to regional exposure.
- Howard is motivated to bounce back after their close loss to Grambling and establish consistency at home. Key performers include Bryce Harris (20.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.3 SPG, 4.3 APG), Alex Cotton (15.3 PPG), and Cam Gillus (12.3 PPG, team-high 5.0 APG). Alcorn State desperately needs a victory to avoid extending their 0-game start, but their 0-36 road record against non-conference opponents and historically poor first-half performance on the road severely limits their outlook. Additionally, Howard has lost only one of their last six games to non-conference opponents at home with strong shooting percentages.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Howard Bison: -300 | Alcorn State Braves: +240 | Howard Bison | β β β β β 82% |
| Spread | Howard Bison: -7.5 (-105) | Alcorn State Braves: +7.5 (-115) | Howard Bison -7.5 | β β β β β 78% |
| Over/under | Over 155.5 (-115) | Under 155.5 (-105) | Under 155.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Howard Bison -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 155.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 155.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Howard Bison are heavily favored to win this matchup. The Bison's superior shooting efficiency (48.5% vs 42.6%), better three-point shooting (46% vs 40%), higher free throw percentage (74.2% vs 64.2%), and home-court advantage create a significant talent and situational disparity. Alcorn State's 0-36 road record against non-conference opponents and their tendency to lose first halves in night games compound their challenges. While Alcorn State has shown some resilience (losing by only 6 to South Alabama), they lack the offensive firepower to stay competitive with a well-rounded Howard team. Howard's 6.5-point spread is justified, and the Bison should control this game throughout.
Predicted Score: Howard Bison 78, Alcorn State Braves 69