Match Analysis: Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Real Madrid – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-25
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Arena Botevgrad
Game Overview
The EuroLeague basketball match between Hapoel Tel Aviv and Real Madrid is set to take place on November 25, 2025, at Arena Botevgrad. Both teams have competitive recent form and stats are closely matched, making this a potentially close and dynamic contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Hapoel Tel Aviv averages 84.8 points per game with a Performance Index Rating (PIR) of 89.9, while Real Madrid averages 83.8 points with a PIR of 88.2. Real Madrid has a stronger rebounding edge (+4.7 total rebounds) and slightly better defensive stats but Hapoel shows better free-throw and three-point shooting percentages. Recent results show Hapoel with wins over Monaco and Valencia, while Real Madrid has mixed outcomes including a narrow win over Maccabi Tel Aviv[1][2][6].
- No historical head-to-head data exists between Hapoel Tel Aviv and Real Madrid, marking this as their first competitive meeting, adding uncertainty to predictions[3][6].
- No explicit injury reports are available for either side in the current dataset, indicating both teams might have their key players available.
- The match is played at a neutral venue, Arena Botevgrad, which may limit typical home-court advantage for Hapoel Tel Aviv. Both teams navigate regular travel demands in EuroLeague play. Motivation for both to maintain or improve standings is high given the competition level[2][4].
- Both teams have strong incentives to secure a win early in the EuroLeague season. Hapoel aims to prove competitive against a top European team, while Real Madrid looks to sustain its status as a EuroLeague contender. Real Madrid's historical stature might give psychological momentum though the neutral ground balances this somewhat[1][4].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hapoel Tel Aviv: -154, Real Madrid: 126 | Real Madrid win | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Hapoel Tel Aviv: -3.5 -104, Real Madrid: +3.5 -118 | Real Madrid +3.5 cover | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 174.5 -112, Under: 174.5 -108 | Over 174.5 points | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hapoel Tel Aviv 38% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 174.5 -2% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Hapoel Tel Aviv at 38% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 30% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Real Madrid is favored to win narrowly due to more consistent rebounding and experience at the highest level, but the contest is expected to be close with Hapoel Tel Aviv able to compete strongly, especially if their shooting rates hold.
Predicted Score: Hapoel Tel Aviv 86 – Real Madrid 89