Match Analysis: Grambling St Tigers vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-13
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Fredrick C. Hobdy Assembly Center, Grambling, LA
Game Overview
Grambling St Tigers (2-1) host Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-2) in a non-conference matchup. Grambling is coming off a narrow road win at Howard, while Southern Miss has struggled away from home, losing both road games this season. Both teams are averaging close to 77 points per game, but defensive trends and situational stats suggest a tight, low-scoring contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Grambling has shown strong home form, winning 9 straight Thursday games at home. Their defense allows 73.0 PPG (204th in D1) and forces 18.7 turnovers per game. Southern Miss averages 8.4 more points per game than Grambling but has lost 8 straight night games against non-conference opponents and has lost the first half in 7 of their last 8 such games.
- Grambling has won 2 of the last 3 meetings, including a 65-62 win in March 2025. Southern Miss has won 3 of its last 4 against SWAC opponents, but Grambling has lost 24 of its last 26 non-conference games.
- No significant injuries reported for either team.
- Grambling has a strong home-court advantage at Fredrick C. Hobdy Assembly Center, especially on Thursdays. Southern Miss has struggled in night games away from home, particularly against non-conference foes.
- Grambling is motivated to build on its recent home success and improve its non-conference record. Southern Miss is seeking its first road win and to avoid a 1-3 start.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -110, away: -110 | Southern Miss Golden Eagles | β β β ββ 62% |
| Spread | home: -1.5 100, away: 1.5 -120 | Southern Miss Golden Eagles +1.5 | β β β β β 74% |
| Over/under | over: 152.5 -110, under: 152.5 -110 | Under 152.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Southern Miss Golden Eagles 5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 152.5 30% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 152.5 at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Southern Miss Golden Eagles to win by 1.5 points.
Predicted Score: Grambling St Tigers 73, Southern Miss Golden Eagles 79