Match Analysis: Fresno St Bulldogs vs UC San Diego Tritons – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 12, 2025
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Save Mart Center, Fresno, CA
Game Overview
UC San Diego (2-0) travels to Fresno State (2-1) for a Mountain West Conference matchup. The Tritons are undefeated on the road in limited action, while the Bulldogs maintain a strong home record. This is a critical early-season contest with playoff implications.
Key Factors to Consider
- UC San Diego is shooting exceptionally well: 50.8% FG, 39.2% 3PT, 76.5% FT, averaging 91.5 PPG (80th in D-1). They are committing turnovers at 12.0 per game and have been dominant against non-AP-ranked opponents, winning 17 consecutive such games. Fresno State shot 50.0% FG in their last game against Long Beach State but only 19.0% from 3PT. The Bulldogs average 78.67 PPG with inconsistent perimeter shooting at 29.58% 3PT. Fresno State has struggled with 2-1 record despite home court advantage.
- No direct head-to-head history provided. UC San Diego has won 17 consecutive games against non-AP-ranked opponents. Fresno State has won 14 of its last 16 home games against Big West Conference opponents and won the first half in 16 of its last 17 home games against Big West Conference teams.
- No injury reports available for either team.
- UC San Diego has lost each of its last eight Wednesday games, a significant concern for this Wednesday matchup. Fresno State has lost eight of its last nine games following a home win (they won last game vs Long Beach State). UC San Diego has won the first half in each of its last five road games against non-AP-ranked opponents. The game is being played at Save Mart Center in Fresno, providing home court advantage to the Bulldogs.
- Fresno State needs to respond at home after inconsistent play early in the season. UC San Diego seeks to extend their undefeated record and prove legitimacy as a road team, but the Wednesday trend is concerning. The Bulldogs are motivated to capitalize on home court.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fresno St -110 | UC San Diego -110 | UC San Diego Tritons ML | β β β ββ 56% |
| Spread | Fresno St -1.5 (105) | UC San Diego +1.5 (-125) | UC San Diego +1.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 151.5 (-108) | Under 151.5 (-112) | Under 151.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UC San Diego Tritons 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 151.5 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 151.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UC San Diego Tritons (+1.5) to cover the spread despite the Wednesday home loss trend. The Tritons' elite offensive efficiency (50.8% FG, 91.5 PPG), superior perimeter shooting, and historical dominance over non-ranked opponents outweigh Fresno State's home court advantage. However, the Wednesday curse and the Bulldogs' first-half home dominance create uncertainty. The total should go Under due to UC San Diego's defensive intensity and Fresno State's poor three-point shooting.
Predicted Score: UC San Diego 84, Fresno State 81