Match Analysis: Fresno St Bulldogs vs UC San Diego Tritons – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-13
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Save Mart Center, Fresno, CA
Game Overview
The Fresno State Bulldogs (2-1) host the UC San Diego Tritons (2-0) in an early-season NCAA Division I basketball matchup. Fresno State has a solid home performance record against Big West conference teams, while UC San Diego enters undefeated with strong shooting efficiency and rebounding stats. Both teams show contrasting styles, with UC San Diego excelling in scoring and Bulldog defenses showing vulnerability in turnovers and foul trouble.
Key Factors to Consider
- UC San Diego leads with 91.5 points per game, shooting 50.8% from the field and 39.2% from three, and averages 42.5 rebounds per game. Fresno State averages 78.6 points, shooting 50% field goal percentage but with a weaker free throw percentage (67.9%) and higher turnovers (14.3 per game). UC San Diego has better assist numbers and lower fouls (11 per game) versus Fresno State's 16.7 fouls per game. Fresno's home advantage and experience against Big West teams is notable.
- No recent direct head-to-head data is available in the provided sources, but Fresno State has historically dominated home games against Big West opponents, going 14-2 in such contests. UC San Diego has struggled on Wednesdays historically (last eight losses) but holds a 17-game winning streak versus non-AP opponents.
- No specific injury reports or player absences were mentioned for either team, indicating likely full-strength lineups.
- The game is held at Fresno State's Save Mart Center, providing a home-court advantage. Fresno State fans' energy and court familiarity could influence momentum. The match timing (late evening local) may favor the home team adapting better to conditions.
- Fresno State seeks to capitalize on their home court and Big West success streak. UC San Diego aims to maintain their unbeaten start and extend their winning trend against non-AP ranked teams. Both teams likely motivated to solidify early season dominance.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fresno St Bulldogs: -110, UC San Diego Tritons: -110 | Fresno St Bulldogs | β β β ββ 58% |
| Spread | Fresno St Bulldogs: -1.5 105, UC San Diego Tritons: +1.5 -125 | Fresno St Bulldogs -1.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
| Over/under | Over: 151.5 -108, Under: 151.5 -112 | Over 151.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fresno St Bulldogs 11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 151.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 151.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Fresno State's strong home record against Big West teams and UC San Diego's offensive efficiency but less battle-tested defense, the game is predicted to be close but lean slightly towards Fresno State covering the spread by a slim margin.
Predicted Score: Fresno St Bulldogs 78 – UC San Diego Tritons 74