Match Analysis: Fresno St Bulldogs vs Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-19
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Save Mart Center, Fresno, CA
Game Overview
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks, currently undefeated at 4-0, travel to face the Fresno State Bulldogs (3-2) in a non-conference matchup. The Lumberjacks are led by senior guard Keon Thompson (22 PPG) and senior forward Jerald Colonel (8 RPG), while Fresno State counters with senior guard Jake Heidbreder (17.8 PPG) and Zaon Collins (4.8 APG). The game is expected to be a high-paced contest, with both teams featuring strong offensive capabilities and solid veteran leadership.
Key Factors to Consider
- Stephen F. Austin has started the season 4-0, showcasing a high-tempo offense and strong defensive discipline. Fresno State is 3-2, with a balanced attack and solid backcourt play. SFAβs pace and scoring efficiency give them an edge, but Fresno Stateβs size and home-court advantage could be decisive in close possessions.
- No recent head-to-head matchups are available for these teams in the last five seasons. This is a rare meeting, making historical trends less relevant.
- No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- Stephen F. Austin is playing on the road, which could impact their rhythm. Fresno State benefits from home-court advantage and a supportive crowd. The game is scheduled for a Tuesday night, which may affect team preparation and travel fatigue.
- Stephen F. Austin is looking to maintain their undefeated record and build momentum for conference play. Fresno State is aiming to bounce back from a recent loss and prove their strength against a top-tier opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fresno St Bulldogs: 120, Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks: -145 | Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Fresno St Bulldogs: 2.5 -110, Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks: -2.5 -110 | Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks -2.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 146.5 -105, Under: 146.5 -115 | Over 146.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 146.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 146.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Stephen F. Austin is favored due to their undefeated record, strong offensive output, and veteran leadership. However, Fresno Stateβs home advantage and solid backcourt play make this a competitive matchup. The Lumberjacks are expected to win, but the game is likely to be close.
Predicted Score: Stephen F. Austin 83, Fresno State 78