Match Analysis: Fresno St Bulldogs vs South Carolina Upstate Spartans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-06
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Save Mart Center, Fresno, California
Game Overview
The Fresno State Bulldogs (1-0) face the South Carolina Upstate Spartans (0-1) in a Mountain West Conference home game with Fresno State favored by 9.5 points. The Bulldogs have demonstrated a strong start with a dominant home win, while the Spartans struggled on the road in their recent loss. The game is expected to be moderately paced with a total points line around 164.5, projecting a comparatively low-scoring encounter given defensive tendencies on both sides.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fresno State averages 70.7 points per game with a relatively weak defense allowing 80.7 points last season, while South Carolina Upstate scores slightly higher at 74.8 points but concedes 83.5 points per game, both ranking in the lower tiers nationally. Fresno State's home advantage and recent dominant performance provide them a notable edge.
- Recent direct matchups are limited, but Fresno Stateβs stronger season start and home court advantage factor prominently as the Spartans have struggled on the road against stronger opponents.
- No specific injury details were reported for either team at this time, suggesting full rosters are expected.
- The game is played at Fresno's Save Mart Center, providing the home crowd advantage to Fresno State. Public betting heavily leans towards Fresno State with about 92% backing them.
- Fresno State is motivated to maintain their undefeated start on home soil, while South Carolina Upstate aims to bounce back from an opening loss.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fresno St Bulldogs: -630, South Carolina Upstate Spartans: 450 | Fresno St Bulldogs to win | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Fresno St Bulldogs: -9.5 -120, South Carolina Upstate Spartans: 9.5 -102 | Fresno St Bulldogs to cover -9.5 | β β β β β 78% |
| Over/under | Over: 164.5 -110, Under: 164.5 -110 | Under 164.5 total points | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fresno St Bulldogs -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 164.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 164.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fresno State is favored to win both the moneyline and against the spread, with expectations for a controlled pace that keeps total points under 164.5.
Predicted Score: Fresno State 83 – South Carolina Upstate 72