Match Analysis: Fresno St Bulldogs vs Long Beach St 49ers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Save Mart Center
Game Overview
The Fresno State Bulldogs host the Long Beach State 49ers in an early-season NCAA Men's Basketball matchup. Fresno State enters the game with a 1-1 record, while Long Beach State is 0-1. The Bulldogs are favored by 6.5 points, with the over/under set at 143.5 points. The game is scheduled for 10:00 PM UTC at the Save Mart Center in Fresno.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fresno State has shown mixed results, starting the season 1-1 and struggling offensively, ranking outside the top 300 in points per possession under coach Vance. Long Beach State is 0-1 and has yet to establish a rhythm, with both teams showing inconsistency in their recent games. Fresno State is favored by the market, but their recent form suggests vulnerability.
- Recent head-to-head data is limited, but Fresno State holds a slight edge in historical matchups. Both teams have faced similar competition levels, but Fresno State's home advantage could be a deciding factor.
- No significant injuries have been reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- Fresno State's home venue, the Save Mart Center, has been noted for inconsistent lighting, which could impact shooting and player performance. The game is being broadcast on MW Network, which may influence crowd energy and home-court advantage.
- Both teams are looking to build momentum early in the season. Fresno State will be motivated to protect their home court, while Long Beach State seeks to bounce back from their opening loss.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fresno St Bulldogs: -298, Long Beach St 49ers: 240 | Fresno St Bulldogs | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Fresno St Bulldogs: -6.5 -115, Long Beach St 49ers: 6.5 -105 | Fresno St Bulldogs -6.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 143.5 -105, Under: 143.5 -115 | Under | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fresno St Bulldogs 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 143.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 143.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fresno State is favored to win, but the game is expected to be competitive. The Bulldogs' home advantage and slightly better record give them the edge, but Long Beach State could keep the game close. The total points are likely to stay under the line due to both teams' offensive struggles.
Predicted Score: Fresno State 75 – Long Beach State 68