Match Analysis: Fresno St Bulldogs vs Long Beach St 49ers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Save Mart Center, Fresno, CA
Game Overview
Fresno State Bulldogs host Long Beach State 49ers in an NCAA basketball matchup where Fresno State enters at 1-1 with recent struggles, while Long Beach State is 0-1 and struggling defensively. Fresno State shows eagerness to increase tempo despite poor recent form, facing a Long Beach team that ranked very low defensively last season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fresno State has a 1-1 record with a 0-1 recent five-game form and against the spread; Long Beach State is 0-1 overall and struggled with defense last year, ranking 329th in points per possession allowed compared to Fresno's 298th. Fresno State tends to play at a higher tempo (18th nationally last season).
- Limited recent H2H data noted, no significant dominance by Long Beach State; Fresno State has historically performed moderately better at home.
- No significant injuries reported for either team affecting starting lineups or rotations.
- Game played at Fresno State's home venue, Save Mart Center, which gives Bulldogs a home-court advantage; public betting heavily favors Fresno State with 100% bets on them.
- Fresno State motivated to rebound from recent losses and justify home favoritism; Long Beach State aims to recover defensively and avoid an 0-2 start on the road.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs: -298, Long Beach St 49ers: +240 | Fresno State Bulldogs | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Fresno State Bulldogs -6.5: -115, Long Beach St 49ers +6.5: -105 | Fresno State Bulldogs -6.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 143.5: -105, Under 143.5: -115 | Under 143.5 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fresno St Bulldogs 145% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 143.5 16% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Fresno St Bulldogs at 145% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 60.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fresno State to win straight up (moneyline), cover the -6.5 spread, and the game total to go under 143.5 points.
Predicted Score: Fresno State Bulldogs 75 – Long Beach State 66