Match Analysis: Florida Gators vs Merrimack Warriors – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O'Connell Center, Gainesville, FL
Game Overview
The Florida Gators (3-1) host the Merrimack Warriors (2-3) on November 22, 2025. Florida comes in with a three-game winning streak and a strong home record of 3-0 this season. They dominated their only previous meeting by 20 points (77-57). Merrimack aims for its first NCAA Tournament appearance at Division I level but has struggled with a 2-3 record and weaker recent performances, including a wide loss at Auburn (95-57). Florida's defensive and rebounding prowess and recent offensive improvements set them as clear favorites.
Key Factors to Consider
- Florida Gators have a strong overall record (3-1), winning recent games convincingly, especially in paint dominance and rebounds, despite suboptimal three-point shooting. Key contributors include Haugh and Condon averaging 19.0 and 16.5 points respectively. Merrimack Warriors have averaged over 140 points in 70% of recent games but are inconsistent, with a 2-3 record and defensive issues allowing high opponent scoring.
- Florida leads their only prior matchup from December 5, 2023, winning 77-57 at home. Florida holds a 1-0 head-to-head record with a 20-point margin of victory.
- No significant injury information reported for either team ahead of this game.
- Florida is at home with a strong fan base and momentum from recent wins over regional rivals Miami and Florida State. Merrimack is traveling and faces a second SEC opponent this season, adding difficulty. No other external factors such as weather or schedule congestion appear impactful.
- Florida is motivated to extend their winning streak and improve NCAA tournament seeding. Merrimack is motivated to secure a signature win and achieve their first NCAA Tournament berth but faces a challenging matchup.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Florida Gators: -10000, Merrimack Warriors: 3300 | Florida Gators | β β β β β 95% |
| Spread | Florida Gators: -36.5 -110, Merrimack Warriors: +36.5 -110 | Florida Gators to cover -36.5 | β β β β β 85% |
| Over/under | Over: 160.5 -110, Under: 160.5 -110 | Under 160.5 total points | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Florida Gators -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 160.5 34% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 160.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Florida Gators are predicted to win comfortably given past performance, home advantage, and disparities in team form and quality. A large margin covering the spread is likely, while the total points might be slightly under the bookmaker's line given recent scoring trends and Florida's defensive strength.
Predicted Score: Florida Gators 85 – Merrimack Warriors 48