Match Analysis: Fairfield Stags vs Stonehill Skyhawks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Fairfield, CT
Game Overview
Fairfield hosts Stonehill in a low-scoring NCAA basketball matchup between two struggling teams. Both squads enter at 1-2 records with significant offensive limitations. This is a classic clash of two offensively challenged programs where defensive intensity and turnover management will determine the outcome.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fairfield averages 67.0 PPG with 36.6% field goal shooting (350th in D-1) and 75.0% free throw shooting[1]. Stonehill scores 73.7 PPG on 43.9% from the floor with 34.2% three-point shooting and 65.2% free throw shooting[1]. Both teams show concerning offensive efficiency metrics. Fairfield's recent loss to Seton Hall (59-82) demonstrates defensive vulnerability, while Stonehill's 57-80 loss to Rhode Island reveals inability to maintain offensive consistency. Both teams have lost their last 1-2 games respectively[3].
- No established head-to-head history provided in available data. This appears to be a neutral matchup between non-conference opponents with no recent precedent.
- No injury information available in the provided data. Assume full roster availability unless otherwise specified.
- Stonehill travels away (0-2 record on the road) which has historically been a significant weakness[3]. Fairfield hosts at home but shows inconsistent performance with 1-0 home record this season. The late-night tip-off (12:00 AM UTC = 7:00 PM ET) is standard for college basketball scheduling and should not significantly impact either team.
- Both teams are desperate to avoid falling to 1-3 records. Fairfield has slight home-court advantage psychology, but Stonehill's road struggles create a motivation imbalance. Fairfield's recent 23-point loss to Seton Hall may provide additional motivation to prove competence, while Stonehill faces consecutive road defeats creating cumulative pressure.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fairfield -290 / Stonehill +235 | Fairfield Stags | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Fairfield -7.5 (-105) / Stonehill +7.5 (-115) | Fairfield -7.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 145.5 (-110) / Under 145.5 (-110) | Under 145.5 | β β β β β 71% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fairfield Stags -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 145.5 36% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 145.5 at 36% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 39.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fairfield Stags win by 6-7 points. Despite both teams' offensive limitations, Fairfield's home-court advantage, superior field goal percentage, and Stonehill's persistent road woes create a clear edge for the Stags. The game will be low-scoring and defensive-oriented, fitting the under projection.
Predicted Score: Fairfield 71, Stonehill 64