Match Analysis: Fairfield Stags vs Stonehill Skyhawks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Fairfield, CT
Game Overview
The Fairfield Stags and Stonehill Skyhawks both enter this NCAA basketball matchup with a 1-2 season record. Fairfield will have home-court advantage in this mid-November contest. Both teams have struggled offensively and defensively, with Fairfield averaging 67 points per game and Stonehill slightly higher at 73.7 points per game. The match is expected to be competitive but with Fairfield favored by bookmakers due to stronger home performance and better schedule strength.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fairfield is shooting 36.6% from the field and 29.4% from three-point range, with better free throw accuracy at 75%. Stonehill shoots 43.9% overall but only 34.2% on threes and 65.2% on free throws. Both teams average around 43 rebounds per game. Fairfield has struggled defensively, especially in recent loss to Seton Hall allowing 82 points. Stonehill was recently beaten by Rhode Island 80-57, indicating vulnerabilities against stronger teams.
- Recent matchups show Fairfield with some advantage, including a 2-1 record against the spread in last five games. Stonehill and Fairfield have played at least once recently with Fairfield winning by 13 points in March. Overall, limited direct recent head-to-head data but home advantage and spread trends favor Fairfield.
- No specific injury reports or absences were noted in available data, suggesting both teams likely to play at full strength.
- Fairfield has a ranked higher strength of schedule (#10 vs Stonehill's #267), indicating tougher opponents faced, which might prepare them better. Home advantage rating for Fairfield is significant (#45 rank) compared to Stonehill. Both teams have faced early season challenges but motivation to get first win of season is strong.
- Both teams are 1-2 and aim to improve their records early in the season. Fairfield edges motivation due to playing at home and slightly better recent performance against spread. Stonehill will look to bounce back from recent heavy loss and capitalize on underdog status.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fairfield Stags: -290, Stonehill Skyhawks: 235 | Fairfield Stags win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Fairfield Stags: -7.5 -105, Stonehill Skyhawks: +7.5 -115 | Fairfield Stags to cover -7.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 145.5 -110, Under: 145.5 -110 | Under 145.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fairfield Stags 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 145.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 145.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fairfield Stags are predicted to win this game at home, covering the -7.5 spread, with a moderately high confidence due to home advantage, better schedule strength, and consistent defensive effort compared to Stonehill.
Predicted Score: Fairfield Stags 74 – Stonehill Skyhawks 65