Match Analysis: Evansville Purple Aces vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 12, 2025
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Ford Center, Evansville, Indiana
Game Overview
Middle Tennessee (2-0) travels to Evansville (2-1) for a non-conference matchup. The Blue Raiders have demonstrated impressive offensive efficiency and ball movement through their first two games, while the Purple Aces have secured consecutive home victories. This represents a significant step up in competition for both teams after facing weaker non-conference opponents.
Key Factors to Consider
- Middle Tennessee is posting exceptional early-season numbers: 104.5 PPG while limiting opponents to 53.5 PPG, 50% field goal shooting, and nearly 25 assists per game. Kamari Lands leads with 15.0 PPG on 59.1% shooting. Evansville has been more efficient defensively (59.7 PPG allowed, 42.3% opponent FG%) but faces a significant step up in opponent quality. The Blue Raiders' rebounding and athleticism provide structural advantages.
- Middle Tennessee defeated Evansville 80-63 in their last matchup. The Blue Raiders have shown they can control this opponent's pace and intensity.
- No significant injuries reported for either team.
- This is Evansville's home game at Ford Center where they have won their last two contests, providing some home-court advantage. However, Middle Tennessee's offensive system and shooting efficiency translate well regardless of venue. The game is being broadcast on ESPN+, a neutral platform.
- Both teams are undefeated or nearly so and looking to establish legitimacy. Middle Tennessee seeks to prove their strong start is sustainable against better competition. Evansville is motivated to protect their home court and validate recent success, but they're facing a significantly more talented and efficient offensive unit.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | MTU -108 | EVAN -112 | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | β β β ββ 58% |
| Spread | Evansville -1.5 102 | Middle Tennessee 1.5 -122 | Middle Tennessee +1.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 142.5 -105 | Under 142.5 -115 | Over 142.5 | β β β ββ 56% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 142.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders to win outright and cover the spread. The Blue Raiders' elite offensive efficiency (50% FG, 25 APG), superior athleticism, and previous head-to-head victory provide substantial advantages. Evansville's solid defense will be tested against Middle Tennessee's ball movement and shooting. Expect a moderately close game that Middle Tennessee wins by 4-6 points.
Predicted Score: Middle Tennessee 79, Evansville 74