Match Analysis: Elon Phoenix vs Gardner-Webb Bulldogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Schar Center, Elon, NC
Game Overview
Gardner-Webb Bulldogs (0-3) travel to face Elon Phoenix (2-1) in a non-conference matchup. The Phoenix are heavily favored at -10.5 points, reflecting their superior record and statistical advantages. Gardner-Webb enters as a struggling team averaging just 59.5 points per game with significant efficiency deficiencies.
Key Factors to Consider
- Elon dominates across key metrics: 90.5 PPG vs Gardner-Webb's 59.5 PPG, offensive efficiency of 1.164 vs 0.815, and effective FG% of 49.7% vs 41.3%. Elon has won 2 of 3 games while Gardner-Webb sits winless at 0-3. Gardner-Webb commits turnovers on 19.1% of plays compared to Elon's 7.6%, a critical liability. Elon rebounds at 42.0 per game with 75.0% defensive rebounding rate, vastly superior to Gardner-Webb's 58.6%.
- No recent head-to-head data available in search results. This appears to be a matchup between non-conference opponents.
- No injury information provided in available data.
- Public betting shows 100% of bets on Elon with 0% on Gardner-Webb, indicating sharp consensus. However, this extreme skew may indicate public overestimation of the spread. The game is on FloCollege, a secondary broadcast platform.
- Elon seeks to improve on 2-1 start and establish consistency. Gardner-Webb faces survival pressure at 0-3, seeking any momentum. Home court advantage favors Elon.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Elon -455 | Gardner-Webb +350 | Elon Phoenix | β β β β β 76% |
| Spread | Elon -10.5 -115 | Gardner-Webb +10.5 -105 | Elon -10.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 149.5 -105 | Under 149.5 -115 | Under 149.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Draw -100% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 149.5 1% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 149.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Elon Phoenix defeats Gardner-Webb Bulldogs by 11-13 points. The statistical disparity is too large for Gardner-Webb to overcome despite potential motivation from winless desperation. Elon's defensive efficiency (allowing 93 PPG) combined with offensive superiority should generate a comfortable margin near the 10.5-point spread.
Predicted Score: Elon 87, Gardner-Webb 75