Match Analysis: East Tennessee St Buccaneers vs Morehead St Eagles – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Freedom Hall Civic Center
Game Overview
East Tennessee State Buccaneers host Morehead State Eagles in a non-conference matchup. ETSU enters with a 3-1 record and strong home form, while Morehead State is 2-3 and struggling on the road. The game is expected to be a test of ETSU's offensive consistency and Morehead State's ability to compete away from home.
Key Factors to Consider
- East Tennessee State has won 3 of their last 4 games, including a dominant 102-50 victory. They are averaging 88.4 points per game and have a strong home record, winning their last 8 night games at Freedom Hall. Morehead State has lost 3 of their last 4, averaging 71.6 points per game and struggling on the road, with 8 losses in their last 9 away night games.
- ETSU has a 3-1 edge in recent matchups, with Morehead State losing all 3 of their last meetings as the underdog. ETSU has covered the spread in 2 of their last 5 meetings, while Morehead State has failed to cover in 3 of their last 4.
- No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- ETSU has a clear home-court advantage, with a strong record in night games at Freedom Hall. Morehead State's poor away form and lack of recent success in night games could be a major factor.
- ETSU is motivated to build on their strong start and maintain momentum at home. Morehead State is looking to break a losing streak and prove their competitiveness on the road.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | East Tennessee St Buccaneers: -650, Morehead St Eagles: 470 | East Tennessee St Buccaneers | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | East Tennessee St Buccaneers: -10.5, Morehead St Eagles: 10.5 | East Tennessee St Buccaneers -10.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over: 146.5, Under: 146.5 | Over 146.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | East Tennessee St Buccaneers 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 146.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 146.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
East Tennessee State is favored to win by a significant margin. Their strong home form, recent offensive output, and Morehead State's struggles on the road suggest ETSU will cover the spread and win outright. The game is expected to be high-scoring, with both teams capable of putting up points.
Predicted Score: East Tennessee State 85 – 68 Morehead State