Match Analysis: Duke Blue Devils vs Niagara Purple Eagles – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 21, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium (Duke Home)
Game Overview
The No. 5 ranked Duke Blue Devils (5-0, 2-0 Home) host the Niagara Purple Eagles (2-2, 1-2 Away) in the first-ever meeting between these programs. This matchup is part of Duke's Brotherhood Run, which features games against teams coached by former Duke players. Duke head coach Jon Scheyer faces off against Niagara head coach Greg Paulus, both former Duke backcourt mates. Duke enters on a 5-game win streak after defeating No. 24 Kansas 78-66 in the Champions Classic, while Niagara seeks to find consistency on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Duke has dominated opponents this season, averaging 92.4 points per game (ranked #23 nationally) while holding opponents to just 60.2 PPG (ranked #10 defensively). Duke's average score margin stands at +32.2 points (ranked #4 nationally). In their first half performances, Duke averages 42.4 points while opponents average just 28.8. Niagara, conversely, averages 68.3 points per game (ranked #67) and allows 66.5 PPG (ranked #301), indicating significant defensive vulnerabilities. Niagara's scoring margin is -1.8 (ranked #183), showing inconsistency. Duke shoots 38.6% from three (ranked #7) and 79.0% from free throw (ranked #12), demonstrating offensive efficiency. Niagara's shooting percentages are significantly lower at 36.7% from three (ranked #334) and 78.6% from free throw (ranked #364).
- This is the first-ever matchup between Duke and Niagara. However, historically Duke ranks much higher in overall program strength and performance metrics. Duke's last season offensive rating was 11th-best in the nation (83.2 PPG) with 7th-best defense (62.8 PPG allowed), while Niagara ranked 313th on offense (68.5 PPG) and 156th defensively (71.4 PPG allowed). The disparity suggests Duke maintains a significant competitive advantage.
- No specific injuries reported in available data for either team. Cameron Boozer (Duke's freshman) is healthy and performing at an elite level (18 PPG, 10 RPG, 5 APG in recent game vs Kansas), representing Duke's primary scoring threat.
- Duke maintains a 4-game home winning streak at Cameron Indoor Stadium, a venue known for providing significant home-court advantage. The Brotherhood Run context adds motivational elements for both coaches. Duke recently passed its first major test against a ranked opponent (Kansas), building momentum and team cohesion.
- Duke seeks to extend its perfect 5-0 record and maintain its position in the top-5 rankings. Niagara needs a road victory to improve its 2-2 record and gain confidence in away games (currently 1-2 away). Greg Paulus faces his former program, adding narrative intrigue. Duke's coaching staff emphasizes continued excellence following the Kansas victory.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Duke -5000 (implied: 98.04% win probability) / Niagara +1500 (implied: 6.25% win probability) | Duke Blue Devils (Moneyline Win) | β β β β β 99% |
| Spread | Duke -39.5 -110 / Niagara +39.5 -110 | Duke Blue Devils -39.5 COVER | β β β β β 95% |
| Over/under | Over 146.5 -110 / Under 146.5 -110 | Under 146.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 146.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 146.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Duke is heavily favored and possesses overwhelming advantages across all statistical categories. The Blue Devils' elite offensive efficiency, dominant defense, perfect record, and significant talent gap compared to Niagara suggest a decisive home victory. Duke's average point margin of +32.2 combined with Niagara's defensive vulnerabilities (allowing 66.5 PPG) indicates Duke should easily cover the 39.5-point spread. The game figures to be a one-sided affair with Duke controlling tempo and establishing dominance early.
Predicted Score: Duke 89, Niagara 48