Match Analysis: Detroit Pistons vs Dallas Mavericks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-02
- Time: 2:10 AM UTC
- Location: Mexico City Arena
Game Overview
The Detroit Pistons (3-2) host the Dallas Mavericks (2-3) in Mexico City, with the Pistons favored by 7.5 points and the over/under set at 223.5. The game is part of the NBA Mexico City series and features two teams with contrasting recent form and injury situations.
Key Factors to Consider
- Detroit has won 3 of their last 5, including a dominant 135-116 win over Orlando. Dallas has struggled, losing 8 of their last 12 games and allowing 115.4 points per game. Detroit’s offense is clicking, averaging 122 points in their last game, while Dallas is shooting just 44.5% from the field and 31.9% from three.
- Recent H2H matchups are split, but Detroit has covered the spread in their last two meetings. The most recent game saw Dallas win by 6 as 9.5-point underdogs, but Detroit has shown improvement since then.
- Dallas is dealing with significant injuries, with nearly their entire rotation out or questionable. Detroit is relatively healthy, giving them a major advantage in depth and execution.
- The game is in Mexico City, which may impact travel, crowd noise, and player acclimatization. The odd start time and international setting could affect Dallas more, given their injury woes and lack of cohesion.
- Detroit is looking to solidify their position in the East and take a step forward, while Dallas is struggling to find consistency and is facing a tough road test with a depleted roster.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -290, away: 235 | Detroit Pistons | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Spread | home: -7.5, away: 7.5 | Detroit Pistons -7.5 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | over: 223.5, under: 223.5 | Over 223.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Detroit Pistons -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 223.5 24% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 223.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Detroit Pistons to win and cover the spread, with the over hitting due to Detroit’s offensive firepower and Dallas’s defensive struggles.
Predicted Score: Detroit Pistons 122, Dallas Mavericks 104