Match Analysis: Dartmouth Big Green vs Marist Red Foxes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Edward Leede Arena, Hanover, New Hampshire
Game Overview
Dartmouth Big Green (0-0) hosts Marist Red Foxes (0-1) in both teams' return to action early in the NCAA basketball season. Marist is coming off a close 66-62 road loss to Xavier, where they showed offensive balance but struggled defensively late. Dartmouth, meanwhile, has yet to play this season, giving them an element of uncertainty regarding form and chemistry. Expect a tightly contested matchup with both teams aiming for their first win of the year.
Key Factors to Consider
- Marist's opening loss exposed vulnerabilities, especially on defense, but their offense produced three double-digit scorers (Blackwell, Lewis, Collins-Roberts), showing promise[4]. Dartmouth has no 2025-26 data yet, so their preseason form and roster changes are unknown variables.
- Marist has won the last three meetings, including a 75-62 victory in their most recent clash, suggesting a psychological edge[3]. Dartmouth will look to reverse this trend at home.
- No major injuries reported for either team. Monitor for last-minute updates, as early-season player availability can be volatile[6].
- Home-court advantage for Dartmouth. Early season games often feature sloppy play and unpredictable performances due to lack of rhythm.
- Both teams are highly motivated for their first win of the season, but Dartmouth may have an extra edge playing their home opener.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dartmouth: -115, Marist: -105 | Dartmouth to win on the moneyline | β β β ββ 60% |
| Spread | Dartmouth -1.5 (-110), Marist +1.5 (-110) | Dartmouth to cover -1.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
| Over/under | Over 139.5 (-115), Under 139.5 (-105) | Under 139.5 points | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dartmouth Big Green 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 139.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 139.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Dartmouth Big Green (-1.5) to cover the spread in a low-scoring game, likely winning by 4-7 points. The lack of recent competitive data for Dartmouth is a concern, but home court, motivation, and Marist's defensive issues tip the scales toward the Big Green, especially with a low total.
Predicted Score: Dartmouth 69, Marist 63