Match Analysis: CSU Northridge Matadors vs Troy Trojans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-17
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Premier American Credit Union Arena, Northridge, California
Game Overview
The CSU Northridge Matadors (2-2) face the Troy Trojans (3-1) in an early season NCAA men's basketball matchup. Troy comes in favored on the road by 3.5 points with strong road performance last season, while Northridge benefits from playing at home, having finished 22-11 last season with a 10-3 home record. Both teams average around 73 points per game based on last season stats, suggesting a moderately paced game with an expected combined total near 156.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- Troy is currently 3-1, coming off solid wins and a loss against LMU recently. They have a good road record historically and average about 73.4 points per game with solid three-point shooting (23.1%). Northridge is 2-2, with a strong home performance last season and allowing 72.9 points per game. Northridge's defense is notable with opponents shooting 40.4% last season. Troy has a strong offense but has turned the ball over moderately (13.3 per game).
- This marks the first-ever meeting between Troy and CSU Northridge in men's basketball, providing no historical direct match data. Analysis relies on recent seasonal performance and venue impact.
- No injury reports have been noted for either team prior to the game, implying both teams should be at full strength.
- Troy is in the midst of a long road trip in California, which could induce fatigue. They play their second game of a four-game California road stretch. Meanwhile, Northridge has home-court advantage with a solid fan base expected at the Premier American Credit Union Arena (capacity approx. 2,200).
- Troy aims to maintain momentum on the road during a challenging stretch and build on last seasonβs strong conference and road performances. Northridge looks to defend their home court and even their season record early on, capitalizing on familiar surroundings.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | CSU Northridge Matadors: +160, Troy Trojans: -192 | Troy Trojans | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | CSU Northridge Matadors: +3.5 -105, Troy Trojans: -3.5 -115 | Troy Trojans -3.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over: 156.5 -110, Under: 156.5 -110 | Over 156.5 points | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Troy Trojans -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 156.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 156.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Troy Trojans to win by a narrow margin, covering the -3.5 spread, with a moderately high scoring game expected near the total line.
Predicted Score: Troy Trojans 79 – CSU Northridge Matadors 74