Match Analysis: Creighton Bluejays vs South Dakota Coyotes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-06
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: CHI Health Center Omaha, Omaha, Nebraska
Game Overview
The No. 23 Creighton Bluejays open their 2025-26 season at home against the South Dakota Coyotes. Creighton is a heavy favorite, with the spread set at -28.5 and the over/under at 167.5. The game is scheduled for Wednesday, November 5, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET (01:00 UTC on November 6) and will be broadcast on Peacock.
Key Factors to Consider
- Creighton posted a strong defensive record last season, allowing 70.0 points per game (110th nationally), while scoring 75.5 (131st). South Dakota struggled defensively, allowing 83.7 points per game (3rd-worst nationally), but ranked 3rd in scoring with 85.2 points per game. South Dakota lost four of their top five scorers from last season and opened their season with a loss to Utah Tech, shooting poorly from three (2-17) and relying heavily on free throws. Creighton, despite losing Big East DPOY Ryan Kalkbrenner, showed strong defensive form in preseason wins over Iowa State and Colorado State, holding both below 40% shooting.
- No recent head-to-head data is available for this matchup.
- No significant injuries have been reported for either team ahead of this game.
- Creighton is playing at home, where they have a strong record as favorites (20-4 straight up in their last 24 games as favorites). South Dakota is on the road, where they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. The venue, CHI Health Center Omaha, is known for its strong home-court advantage for Creighton.
- Creighton is motivated to start their season strong and establish themselves as a top team in the Big East. South Dakota is looking to bounce back from a disappointing season opener and prove they can compete against higher-level competition.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -30000, away: 4000 | Creighton Bluejays | β β β β β 95% |
| Spread | home: -28.5, away: 28.5 | Creighton Bluejays -28.5 | β β β β β 85% |
| Over/under | over: 167.5, under: 167.5 | Under 167.5 | β β β β β 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Creighton Bluejays -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 167.5 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 167.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Creighton is expected to dominate this matchup, leveraging their size, defensive discipline, and depth to control the tempo and limit South Dakota's scoring efficiency. South Dakota's fast pace may create some scoring bursts, but sustained efficiency will be difficult against Creighton's disciplined defense and deep rotation. Creighton should cover the spread comfortably, and the game is likely to stay under the total due to Creighton's defensive strength and South Dakota's offensive struggles.
Predicted Score: Creighton 88, South Dakota 65