Match Analysis: Colorado St Rams vs Cal Poly Mustangs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-13
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Moby Arena, Fort Collins, CO
Game Overview
The Colorado State Rams host the Cal Poly Mustangs in a Mountain West matchup. Colorado State enters undefeated at 2-0, having beaten Nebraska–Omaha 97-74 at home, showing strong offensive and defensive form with a +57 point differential. Cal Poly is 2-1, coming off a close road win against Seattle 73-71, with a negative point differential of -6 indicating some defensive vulnerabilities. Colorado State is heavily favored based on current form, home advantage, and historical performance.
Key Factors to Consider
- Colorado State has demonstrated dominance with a strong offense averaging 97 points per game and solid defense allowing 69 points per game. Cal Poly, while resilient, has had a tighter scoring margin and allowed more points, suggesting some defensive gaps that CSU might exploit.
- Recent data on direct head-to-head is limited, but Colorado State's larger margin of victories and home court advantage historically provide them with the edge.
- Currently, no reported injuries impacting the primary rotations for either team, indicating both teams should have full strength lineups available.
- The game is at Colorado State's home venue, Moby Arena, which typically bolsters their performance, especially in early season games. Crowd support and travel fatigue may slightly impact Cal Poly.
- Colorado State aims to maintain an undefeated start and showcase dominance in conference play, while Cal Poly is motivated to prove competitiveness against a favored opponent and continue building momentum after recent wins.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Colorado St Rams: -3500, Cal Poly Mustangs: 1280 | Colorado St Rams to win | ★★★★★ 97% |
| Spread | Colorado St Rams: -17.5 -120, Cal Poly Mustangs: +17.5 -102 | Colorado St Rams to cover -17.5 spread | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Over/under | over: 167.5 -110, under: 167.5 -110 | Under 167.5 points total | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Colorado St Rams -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 167.5 11% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 167.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Colorado State Rams are strongly favored to win by a large margin given their form, home advantage, and the wide spread with good confidence.
Predicted Score: Colorado St Rams 90 – 70 Cal Poly Mustangs