Match Analysis: Colorado Buffaloes vs UC Davis Aggies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 21, 2025
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: CU Events Center, Boulder, Colorado
Game Overview
The undefeated Colorado Buffaloes (4-0) host the UC Davis Aggies (4-1) in a non-conference college basketball matchup. Colorado enters as a heavy favorite with a 15.5-point spread, reflecting their dominant start to the season and home-court advantage. UC Davis, despite a strong 4-1 record, will be tested against the nation's more efficient offensive team.
Key Factors to Consider
- Colorado has established itself as an elite offensive force, scoring approximately 94.3 points per gameβ16.1 points more than UC Davis's 78.2 PPG average. Colorado shoots 51% from the field and 35% from three-point range, significantly outpacing UC Davis's 46.6% field goal percentage and 34.9% three-point shooting. Defensively, Colorado holds UC Davis to 69.6 PPG allowed (119th nationally). Colorado has won 19 consecutive non-conference games at home and won the first half in 27 of their last 31 home games against non-conference opponents.
- No prior matchup history between these programs is provided in available data. This represents a first encounter between Colorado and UC Davis.
- No injury information is available in the provided data.
- UC Davis has struggled on the road, losing three of their last four away games. Colorado is playing their fifth consecutive home game to start the season, providing continuity and comfort in their home environment. The Acrisure Holiday Classic tournament setting may carry additional significance.
- Colorado seeks to remain undefeated and continue their dominant home winning streak. UC Davis aims to prove their legitimacy as a 4-1 team and secure a notable road victory against a higher-profile program.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Colorado -1800 | UC Davis +1000 | Colorado Buffaloes to win | β β β β β 94% |
| Spread | Colorado -15.5 -108 | UC Davis +15.5 -112 | Colorado to cover the -15.5 spread | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 154.5 -112 | Under 154.5 -108 | Over 154.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Colorado Buffaloes -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 154.5 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 154.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Colorado Buffaloes will defeat UC Davis Aggies convincingly. The Buffaloes' superior offensive efficiency, elite shooting percentages, and dominant home record create a significant mismatch. UC Davis's defensive limitations and road struggles make them vulnerable to Colorado's balanced attack. Expect Colorado to control the game throughout and potentially exceed the spread.
Predicted Score: Colorado 85, UC Davis 68