Match Analysis: Cincinnati Bearcats vs Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Fifth Third Arena, Cincinnati, OH
Game Overview
Cincinnati Bearcats, undefeated at 3-0 and strong at home, face Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers, who hold a 1-2 record. Cincinnati is heavily favored both by odds and recent performance, with a noted stronger offense and defense. The Bearcats are averaging 80.7 points per game and allowing only 63 points, while the Mountaineers have struggled offensively and are outmatched on rebounds and turnovers.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cincinnati is 3-0 overall and 3-0 at home, averaging 80.7 points and 39.7 rebounds per game while maintaining strong defense and averaging 8 steals per game. Mt. St. Mary's are 1-2 with challenges in shooting efficiency and turnovers, averaging fewer points and rebounds.
- The last meeting was in 2010, with Cincinnati winning 69-59. No recent head-to-head data suggests current form favors Cincinnati clearly.
- Mt. St. Mary's has a lower body injury to FJalen Haynes which may impact their frontline defense and rebounding. Cincinnati has no reported major injuries.
- The game is played at Cincinnatiβs home court, Fifth Third Arena, providing home-court advantage. The large point spread and moneyline odds reflect heavy betting market confidence in Cincinnati.
- Cincinnati looks to maintain its undefeated record and dominance early in the season. Mt. St. Mary's aim to prove competitiveness despite underdog status but face a top 50 ranked team with greater depth.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cincinnati: -10000, Mt. St. Mary's: 3000 | Cincinnati Bearcats win | β β β β β 95% |
| Spread | Cincinnati: -26.5 -110, Mt. St. Mary's: +26.5 -110 | Cincinnati Bearcats to cover -26.5 | β β β β β 90% |
| Over/under | Over: 147.5 -110, Under: 147.5 -110 | Under 147.5 points | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bearcats -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 147.5 34% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 147.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cincinnati Bearcats are expected to win dominantly and cover the spread, with an emphasis on defensive control and superior rebounding, leading to a final margin around 30 points.
Predicted Score: Cincinnati Bearcats 85 – Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers 55