Match Analysis: Cincinnati Bearcats vs Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Fifth Third Arena
Game Overview
Cincinnati Bearcats host Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers in a non-conference matchup. Cincinnati enters unbeaten at 3-0, while Mt. St. Mary's is 1-2. The Bearcats are heavy favorites, with a spread of -26.5 and a total set at 147.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- Cincinnati is 3-0, averaging 80.7 points per game and 8 steals per game. They are strong defensively and have depth. Mt. St. Mary's is 1-2, with a recent win over Saint Francis but struggled in losses. They average 32 rebounds and 21 assists per game, but turnover-prone and less efficient on defense.
- Cincinnati won the only previous meeting 69-59 in 2010. No recent history, but Cincinnati is a much stronger program and has a clear edge in talent and resources.
- Cincinnati's FJalen Haynes is out with a lower body injury. This is a minor setback, but Cincinnati's depth should absorb the loss.
- Game is at Cincinnati's home court, Fifth Third Arena, where they are 3-0 this season. Crowd support and home advantage are significant. No weather or travel issues.
- Cincinnati is motivated to remain unbeaten and build momentum for conference play. Mt. St. Mary's is looking to upset a Power 5 team and boost their resume, but the gap in talent is substantial.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -10000 | Cincinnati Bearcats | β β β β β 95% |
| Spread | -26.5 -110 | Cincinnati Bearcats -26.5 | β β β β β 78% |
| Over/under | 147.5 -110 | Under 147.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bearcats -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 147.5 30% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 147.5 at 30% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cincinnati will dominate Mt. St. Mary's, covering the spread and keeping the game under the total. The Bearcats' defense and depth will be too much for the Mountaineers.
Predicted Score: Cincinnati 78, Mt. St. Mary's 61