Match Analysis: Central Arkansas Bears vs Samford Bulldogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 16, 2025
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Farris Center, Conway, Arkansas
Game Overview
The Samford Bulldogs (2-2) travel to Conway to face the Central Arkansas Bears (1-2) in a matchup featuring a significant talent disparity. Samford enters as a 7.5 to 8.5-point favorite with superior offensive and defensive metrics from last season. Central Arkansas has struggled early in the season, losing their last two games and failing to cover the spread in recent outings. This non-conference matchup favors the Bulldogs, who boast stronger historical performance indicators across both sides of the ball.
Key Factors to Consider
- Samford ranked 14th nationally in offensive efficiency last season (82.9 PPG) and 283rd defensively (75.5 PPG allowed). Central Arkansas ranked 275th offensively (70.2 PPG) and 327th defensively (78.1 PPG allowed), indicating a substantial gap in team quality. Samford's offensive prowess should create scoring opportunities against a vulnerable Bears defense, while the Bulldogs' defensive limitations could allow Central Arkansas some scoring chances. However, the overall talent advantage clearly favors Samford.
- No recent head-to-head history is available in the provided data. This represents a non-conference matchup between teams from different conferences, with no established rivalry or historical patterns to reference.
- Specific injury reports were not fully loaded in the available data. However, Jadin Booth was noted as a recent performer for one team, going for 34 points in a losing effort against Tulane. Without confirmed current injury information for either roster, both teams are assumed to be at or near full availability.
- The game is played at Central Arkansas' home venue, providing the Bears with home court advantage. However, this advantage may be offset by Samford's superior roster quality. The mid-afternoon start time (2:00 PM ET) is standard for Sunday college basketball action. Public betting percentages show heavy moneyline support, suggesting sharp money may be backing Central Arkansas to cover or pull off an outright upset.
- Both teams are early in the season with limited records. Central Arkansas enters the game winless in their last two contests and 0-2 against the spread recently, creating motivation to improve. Samford, despite being 2-2, is favored to win decisively and has clear motivation to establish dominance against an inferior opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Samford -360 / Central Arkansas +285 | Samford Bulldogs | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | Samford -8.5 (-105) / Central Arkansas +8.5 (-115) | Samford -8.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 149.5 (-112) / Under 149.5 (-108) | Over 149.5 | β β β ββ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Samford Bulldogs -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 149.5 6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 149.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Samford should control this matchup through superior offensive efficiency and more balanced defensive play. The Bulldogs' 14th-ranked offensive efficiency from last season provides a significant edge against Central Arkansas' 327th-ranked defense. While Samford's defense (283rd) is not elite, it remains substantially better than Central Arkansas' defensive profile. Expect Samford to win comfortably, likely by 8-12 points, with the game score falling close to the projected 79-76 range but with Samford executing better in the final minutes.
Predicted Score: Samford 81, Central Arkansas 72