Match Analysis: Central Arkansas Bears vs Samford Bulldogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Farris Center, Conway, Arkansas
Game Overview
The Samford Bulldogs, favored by about 8.5 points, have shown a better offensive profile compared to Central Arkansas Bears, who have struggled both offensively and defensively early in the season. Samford's historical edge in scoring and stronger recent performances position them as favorites, but Central Arkansas's home court provides some competitive leverage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Samford is 2-2 with strong offensive numbers (82.9 PPG last season, top 15 nationally) but weak defense (75.5 PPG allowed). Central Arkansas is 1-2, scoring 70.2 PPG last season and allowing 78.1 PPG, ranking near the bottom defensively.
- No direct recent H2H data available; however, Samfordβs superior offensive efficiency and better recent form suggest an edge.
- No significant injury reports impacting starters for either team noted in available data.
- Samford is playing on the road but is highly favored by bookmakers and analysts. Central Arkansas may have a motivational boost playing at home with public backing on the spread.
- Samford (2-2) aiming to solidify a winning record early, more motivated; Central Arkansas (1-2) under pressure after a 0-2 ATS start, likely motivated to cover the spread at home.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Central Arkansas: +285, Samford: -360 | Samford Bulldogs | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Central Arkansas +8.5: -115, Samford -8.5: -105 | Central Arkansas Bears +8.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 149.5: -112, Under 149.5: -108 | Over 149.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Samford Bulldogs -8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 149.5 29% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 149.5 at 29% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Samford Bulldogs to win moneyline, Central Arkansas Bears to cover the spread, and game to go over the total points.
Predicted Score: Samford Bulldogs 79 – Central Arkansas Bears 74