Match Analysis: BYU Cougars vs Wisconsin Badgers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 21, 2025
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: BYU Campus, Provo, Utah (Home)
Game Overview
The BYU Cougars (3-1) host the Wisconsin Badgers (4-0) in a non-conference college basketball matchup. Wisconsin enters as an underdog despite their perfect record, while BYU looks to extend their three-game home winning streak. This represents a revenge opportunity for Wisconsin, who fell to BYU previously. The Badgers' undefeated start has positioned them as a dangerous underdog team with proven resilience in away games.
Key Factors to Consider
- Wisconsin arrives with a flawless 4-0 record and has demonstrated exceptional performance in road games, posting an against-the-spread record of 8-3-0 (.727 winning percentage) in away contests last season. BYU holds a 3-1 record with a strong home presence, having compiled a 10-6-0 ATS record at home last season. Wisconsin historically won 5 of 10 games when cast as an underdog and has never been a larger underdog than the current +235 moneyline setting.
- Wisconsin will be seeking revenge after a previous loss to BYU this season. The historical matchup data shows these are competitive programs, with Wisconsin's road success suggesting they can compete effectively in this environment.
- No significant injury information is provided in available data for either team.
- The combined scoring average of both teams from last season (161.5) perfectly matches the over/under line set for this contest. BYU's games finished over 161.5 points 11 times last season, while Wisconsin's did so 9 times, indicating both teams have moderate offensive capabilities but tend toward lower-scoring contests.
- Wisconsin seeks revenge and to maintain their undefeated record on the road. BYU aims to extend their home winning streak and improve their conference positioning. Wisconsin's underdog status and historical resilience in such situations suggests strong motivation to prove themselves against the spread.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | BYU -295 / Wisconsin +235 | BYU Cougars | β β β ββ 62% |
| Spread | BYU -5.5 (-120) / Wisconsin +5.5 (-102) | Wisconsin +5.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 160.5 (-115) / Under 160.5 (-105) | Under 160.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | BYU Cougars 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 160.5 2% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 160.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Wisconsin will keep this closer than expected and present significant value as an underdog. While BYU has the home-court advantage and favorable moneyline odds, Wisconsin's undefeated record, exceptional road performance (8-3-0 ATS), and historical success as an underdog (5-of-10 last season) make them a compelling pick. The game should be decided in the final minutes, with Wisconsin covering the spread as a learning opportunity for the Badgers despite a potential close loss.
Predicted Score: BYU 79, Wisconsin 75 (BYU moneyline winner, Wisconsin covers +5.5 spread, Under 160.5 total)