Match Analysis: Bowling Green Falcons vs Bucknell Bison – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-24
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Suncoast Credit Union Arena, Cypress Lake, Florida
Game Overview
The Bowling Green Falcons (3-2) host the Bucknell Bison (2-4) in a NCAA Men’s Basketball matchup. The Falcons come in as 6.5-point favorites with a moneyline of -345, reflecting confidence in their home-court advantage and slightly better recent form. The Bison are trying to snap a four-game losing streak, including a three-game road skid, making them underdogs. Both teams have averaged scoring close to the game’s over/under of 147.5 points, with Bowling Green typically scoring slightly above and Bucknell somewhat below this mark, suggesting a moderately paced game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bowling Green has a 3-2 record and is 3-1-0 against the spread, showing solid performance and good value in betting. They average 32.8 rebounds per game and shoot about 47.8% from the field, ranking in the top 100 nationally in efficiency. Bucknell is 2-4 overall and 2-4-0 against the spread, with struggles on the road and lower offensive effectiveness, shooting around 38.7% from the field and generating fewer rebounds.
- Historical head-to-head data is limited in recent context, but previous matchups have shown Bowling Green with a competitive edge due to stronger home court and better recent outcomes. Bucknell has historically found it tough winning against Bowling Green on the road, impacting confidence and odds.
- No specific injuries reported impacting key players for either team at this time.
- Game played at Bowling Green's home venue (Suncoast Credit Union Arena) grants them a noticeable home advantage which is backed by data ranking home advantage at #109 nationally. The Bison’s recent road performance is weak, contributing to their lower odds.
- Bowling Green seeks to consolidate their winning momentum and cover the spread at home. Bucknell is motivated to break the ongoing losing streak, especially on the road, which may drive higher defensive effort but is tempered by their offensive inefficiency.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons: -345, Bucknell Bison: 270 | Bowling Green Falcons | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Bowling Green Falcons: -6.5 -114, Bucknell Bison: 6.5 -106 | Bowling Green Falcons to cover -6.5 | ★★★★☆ 80% |
| Over/under | Over: 147.5 -110, Under: 147.5 -110 | Over 147.5 points | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 147.5 24% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 147.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bowling Green is favored to win decisively due to better efficiency, home advantage, and current form. The moneyline and spread both favor the Falcons, and betting trends support taking Bowling Green to cover the -6.5 spread. The game is likely to exceed the 147.5 points total due to Bowling Green’s offensive tempo and Bucknell’s susceptibility to conceding points.
Predicted Score: Bowling Green Falcons 82, Bucknell Bison 66