Match Analysis: Boise State Broncos vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-12
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: ExtraMile Arena, Boise, Idaho
Game Overview
The Boise State Broncos host the UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros in a non-conference NCAA Men's Basketball matchup. Boise State enters the game as a heavy favorite, with both teams coming off wins in their previous outings. The game is scheduled for Tuesday, November 11, 2025, at 8:00 PM local time (2:00 AM UTC on November 12) at ExtraMile Arena in Boise, Idaho.
Key Factors to Consider
- Boise State has shown strong offensive output, scoring 179 points in their first two games and averaging 89.5 points per game. Their defense has allowed 156 points, indicating a high-scoring, fast-paced style. UTRGV has also started the season well, scoring 176 points in their first two games and allowing 168. Their most recent win was a convincing 95-72 victory over Southern Utah. Both teams are off to a 1-1 start, but Boise State's margin of victory and home-court advantage are significant factors.
- There is limited recent head-to-head history between these two teams. The matchup is rare, with no notable recent meetings, making historical trends less relevant. Boise State's superior program and home-court advantage are expected to play a major role.
- No major injuries have been reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads are expected to field their strongest lineups.
- The game is being played at ExtraMile Arena, Boise State's home court, which is known for its strong home-court advantage. The atmosphere and crowd support are expected to be a factor. The game is part of Boise State's early non-conference schedule, which is designed to prepare them for Mountain West competition.
- Boise State is motivated to continue their strong start and build momentum for their conference schedule. UTRGV is looking to prove themselves against a higher-level opponent and gain valuable experience for their Southland Conference slate.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Boise State: -1200, UTRGV: 750 | Boise State | β β β β β 95% |
| Spread | Boise State -16.5 (-110), UTRGV +16.5 (-110) | Boise State covers | β β β β β 85% |
| Over/under | Over 161.5 (-110), Under 161.5 (-110) | Over | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Boise State Broncos -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 161.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 161.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Boise State is heavily favored to win this game, with a significant edge in talent, home-court advantage, and recent performance. The Broncos are expected to control the pace and dominate on both ends of the floor. UTRGV will need to play a near-perfect game to keep it competitive, but a Boise State victory by double digits is the most likely outcome.
Predicted Score: Boise State 88, UTRGV 73