Match Analysis: Boise State Broncos vs NC State Wolfpack – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-25
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Lahaina Civic Center, Lahaina, HI
Game Overview
The NC State Wolfpack (4-1) face the Boise State Broncos (4-2) in the Southwest Maui Invitational semifinals. NC State enters as the moneyline favorite with odds at -310 and a spread of -6.5, while Boise State is the underdog at +245 moneyline and +6.5 spread. Both teams have similar scoring and defensive metrics, with NC State averaging 100.8 points and 69.8 allowed, and Boise State averaging 77.6 points and 67.6 allowed. Boise State tends to slow the tempo, while NC State has a balanced offense and defense.
Key Factors to Consider
- NC State is 4-1 this season, recently losing to Seton Hall but showing strong offensive capabilities with 100.8 PPG and solid rebounding (41.5 per game). Boise State is 4-2, coming off a close 70-67 loss to USC, shooting 41% overall but struggling on three-point attempts. Boise State plays a slower tempo with 68.7 possessions per game. NC State boasts higher scoring, assists, and rebounds per game.
- The teams have met once before in 2014, with NC State winning 60-54 at home. There are no recent meetings to offer more current matchup context.
- Boise State has two season-long absences: Dominic Parolin (F) and Drew Fielder (F/C). NC State reports no key injuries for this game.
- Game played at a neutral venue in Lahaina, Hawaii, which may limit home court advantage. Boise State played at home last season with better ATS record, but this setting neutralizes that factor. Both teams' performances might be affected by travel and tournament pressure.
- NC State appears motivated to assert dominance as the betting favorite and improve to 5-1, while Boise State looks to rebound from a narrow recent loss and make a statement in the tournament. Both teams have strong incentives to win in advance of postseason positioning.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Boise State Broncos: +245, NC State Wolfpack: -310 | NC State Wolfpack | β β β β β 76% |
| Spread | Boise State Broncos: +6.5 -110, NC State Wolfpack: -6.5 -110 | NC State Wolfpack to cover -6.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over: 150.5 -110, Under: 150.5 -110 | Under 150.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack -12% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 150.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 150.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Despite Boise State's recent close loss and strong home ATS record, NC State's higher scoring efficiency and stable lineup without injuries provide an edge. The prediction leans toward NC State to win straight up and cover the -6.5 spread, with a final score projection favoring NC State by roughly 7 points.
Predicted Score: NC State Wolfpack 78 – Boise State Broncos 71