Match Analysis: Baylor Bears vs Tarleton State Texans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Waco, Texas (Baylor Home)
Game Overview
Baylor Bears host Tarleton State Texans in an NCAA Men's Basketball matchup. Baylor enters as a heavy favorite with moneyline odds of -10000, reflecting their significant dominance over Tarleton State. This is a non-conference game featuring a Power 4 program against a lower-tier opponent.
Key Factors to Consider
- Baylor is a well-established NCAA Division I program competing at the highest level. Tarleton State competes at a lower tier of college basketball. The massive moneyline odds (-10000) indicate sportsbooks view this as a near-certainty Baylor victory.
- Baylor holds a 4-1 record against Tarleton State in their last five matchups, with recent dominance. Most recently, Baylor defeated Tarleton State 80-57 in June 2022. Baylor's home record against Tarleton is 3-1, with a current winning streak of 3 consecutive victories against the Texans.
- No injury information available from provided data.
- Baylor is playing at home, a significant advantage. The extreme odds suggest this is a heavily mismatched contest in terms of program resources, talent, and competitive level.
- Baylor, as the favored home team, has motivation to establish dominance early and maintain their winning streak. Tarleton State, as a significant underdog, may play with desperation but faces an uphill battle against superior competition.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Baylor -10000 | Tarleton State +2800 | Baylor Bears ML | ★★★★★ 96% |
| Spread | Baylor -24.5 (-110) | Tarleton State +24.5 (-110) | Baylor Bears -24.5 | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Over/under | Over 153.5 (-106) | Under 153.5 (-114) | Under 153.5 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Baylor Bears -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 153.5 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 153.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Baylor Bears to win convincingly at home. The massive spread of -24.5 and moneyline of -10000 reflect the talent gap between these programs. Expect Baylor to control the game from start to finish with a decisive victory.
Predicted Score: Baylor 78, Tarleton State 53
