Match Analysis: Auburn Tigers vs Houston Cougars – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Legacy Arena at BJCC, Birmingham, AL
Game Overview
The No. 1 Houston Cougars (3-0) visit the No. 22 Auburn Tigers (3-0) in a highly competitive NCAA basketball matchup. Both teams are undefeated, with Houston dominant at home and Auburn strong on the road. Houston is favored to win but Auburn has shown resilience and covers well against the spread at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Houston is undefeated with convincing wins by double digits and a strong defensive profile, holding teams to under 50 points recently. Auburn also unbeaten with strong offense, demonstrated by a 93-62 win over Wofford. Houston is overall the stronger team, especially in moneyline situations as heavy favorites.
- No recent direct H2H results were found, but Houston historically performs well as a strong favorite with a 92% moneyline win rate at odds -315 or shorter last season.
- No major injuries reported for either team ahead of the game, both at full strength.
- Game is at a neutral yet home-site environment for Auburn in Birmingham, which favors Auburn slightly given their better home ATS record last season versus Houstonβs weaker home ATS performance.
- Houston aims to maintain their top national ranking and undefeated record; Auburn motivated to prove themselves against the top-ranked team on a home court setting.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: 270, away: -350 | Houston Cougars | β β β β β 80% |
| Spread | home: -110, away: -110 | Auburn Tigers +7.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | over: -110, under: -110 | Over 139.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Houston Cougars -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 139.5 9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 139.5 at 9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Houston Cougars to win on the moneyline, Auburn Tigers to cover the +7.5 spread, and the game total to go over 139.5 points.
Predicted Score: Houston Cougars 76 – Auburn Tigers 67