Match Analysis: Arkansas Razorbacks vs Winthrop Eagles – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-18
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Bud Walton Arena
Game Overview
Arkansas Razorbacks (3-1, 3-0 home) host Winthrop Eagles (2-2, 0-2 away) in a non-conference matchup. Arkansas is ranked No. 21 and enters the game as heavy favorites, coming off a three-game home winning streak. Winthrop is looking to bounce back after a mixed start to the season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Arkansas has shown strong offensive execution, averaging 89.3 points per game and shooting 46.9% from the field. They are also dominant on the boards, pulling down 42.3 rebounds per contest. Winthrop, while capable offensively (averaging 70.3% from the free-throw line and 51.5% FG in their last game), struggles with turnovers and ranks 318th nationally in assists. Arkansas has been efficient at home, going 9-8-0 against the spread last season, while Winthrop has performed better on the road (8-5-0 ATS) than at home.
- No recent head-to-head matchups are available between Arkansas and Winthrop.
- No injuries have been reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- The game is being played at Bud Walton Arena, a strong home environment for Arkansas. Winthrop will be facing a significant challenge on the road against a ranked opponent.
- Arkansas is motivated to maintain their home winning streak and build momentum early in the season. Winthrop is seeking to prove themselves against a ranked team and improve their record after a tough start.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks: -4500, Winthrop Eagles: 1600 | Arkansas Razorbacks | β β β β β 97% |
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks: -19.5 -120, Winthrop Eagles: 19.5 -102 | Arkansas Razorbacks -19.5 | β β β β β 88% |
| Over/under | Over: 166.5 -115, Under: 166.5 -105 | Over 166.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 166.5 22% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 166.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Arkansas is heavily favored to win this matchup, with a projected win probability of 88-97.6% based on multiple models and betting odds. Winthrop is unlikely to cover the large spread, but could keep the game competitive enough to potentially hit the over if both teams maintain their scoring trends.
Predicted Score: Arkansas 85, Winthrop 72